Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T02:10:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3F 0x3f42…6fcb crypto 439 markets active 0h ago coverage 131d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 130d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,290 (-17%) realized −$4,226 · open −$64
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate26%147W / 422L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day26.3pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$153now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 131d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$2,491
other 7% +$205
world 4% −$56
sports 3% +$230
politics 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 170 -51.3% -55.9% 12% 12% -61.3%
≤30d 170 -51.3% -55.9% 12% 12% -61.3%
≤90d 170 -51.3% -55.9% 12% 12% -61.3%
all 569 -17.8% -25.6% 26% 25% -34.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.6% 25% -34.6%
10% ← realistic here -32.8% 22% -40.8%
15% -39.3% 19% -46.6%
20% -45.2% 15% -51.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -58% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +4% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$29 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$153
Realized−$4,226
Unrealized−$64
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses147 / 422
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions4
Markets (closed)569 / 439
History coverage131d ⚠
Avg bet$56
Trades / day26.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 569 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $71 $70 −$1 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+8%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $20 $28 +$8 (+41%)
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays 8¢ 0¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 438 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - February 11, 9PM ET Jun 27 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 9, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 27 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 6PM ET Jun 27 $142 −$167 -117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Pistons vs. Hornets Jun 27 $4 −$6 -150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 27 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Bulls vs. Nets Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 27 $39 −$39 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 7, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 11, 2PM ET Jun 27 $26 −$21 -83%
Solana Up or Down - February 13, 2AM ET Jun 27 $22 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 27 $69 −$55 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 12, 2AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -103%
Solana Up or Down - February 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 27 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 13, 10PM ET Jun 27 $84 −$69 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 27 $9 −$9 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jun 27 $11 −$11 -101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 27 $25 −$24 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 27 $41 −$41 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 12, 10PM ET Jun 27 $4 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 27 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 27 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 27 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -94%
Solana Up or Down - February 15, 12AM ET Jun 27 $45 −$43 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 14, 8PM ET Jun 27 $4 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 27 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 27 $20 −$13 -64%
Solana Up or Down - February 13, 12PM ET Jun 27 $12 −$8 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 27 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 27 $17 −$1 -9%
Solana Up or Down - February 15, 1AM ET Jun 27 $23 −$7 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 27 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 11PM ET Jun 27 $279 −$250 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Toronto Blue Jays 21¢ $68 26m
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 8¢ $103 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY 9¢ $20 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 22h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 16¢ $51 22h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? AND Will Paraguay vs. Au BUY 24¢ $50 22h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $123 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06 BUY 21¢ $149 24h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 15¢ $51 25h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 6¢ $15 25h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY 5¢ $10 25h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 25h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 25h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 8¢ $51 26h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 AND Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND S BUY 1¢ $12 27h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will BUY 10¢ $30 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 28h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 28h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 28h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY 7¢ $20 29h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? AND Wi BUY 7¢ $15 29h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06 BUY 6¢ $30 29h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan vs. Sweden end in BUY 7¢ $28 29h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 10¢ $76 47h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 36¢ $367 47h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-2 BUY 4¢ $26 2d
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 8¢ $0 2d
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 8¢ $9 2d
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 8¢ $0 2d
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 8¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $152.89 · official $216.76 · 3500 history records