Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:57:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3f43…9e50 crypto 245 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$22 (+0%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate73%179W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$60
7 days+$206
14 days+$245
30 days+$148
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$135
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.4% -9.8% 91% 36% -1.0%
≤30d 33 -9.0% -17.6% 73% 33% -5.6%
≤90d 211 -5.3% -14.3% 73% 38% -10.4%
all 245 -4.8% -13.9% 73% 38% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 38% -10.3%
10% -22.1% 15% -18.9%
15% -29.6% 7% -26.8%
20% -36.5% 4% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$24 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses179 / 66
Open positions0
Markets (closed)245 / 245
History coverage91d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 245 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 20 $202 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 20 $311 +$36 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $202 +$16 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $276 +$21 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3AM ET Jun 18 $267 +$8 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET Jun 16 $244 +$23 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $206 +$38 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET Jun 15 $182 +$24 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET Jun 15 $160 +$22 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $150 +$9 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3AM ET Jun 13 $145 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $141 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $131 +$9 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $126 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 07 $118 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11AM ET Jun 07 $111 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 02 $101 +$11 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET May 21 $14 −$4 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5PM ET May 21 $24 −$6 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 21 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 21 $7 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 21 $6 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 21 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET May 21 $26 −$14 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1PM ET May 21 $22 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET May 21 $20 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET May 21 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET May 21 $35 −$8 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET May 21 $20 −$10 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11AM ET May 21 $42 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 21 $110 −$67 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3PM ET May 20 $126 +$9 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 20 $101 +$16 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9AM ET May 20 $145 +$24 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7AM ET May 19 $125 +$20 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5AM ET May 19 $112 +$13 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4AM ET May 19 $105 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1PM ET May 18 $100 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 18 $86 +$28 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET May 18 $73 +$12 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET May 18 $100 −$27 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9AM ET May 15 $103 +$23 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET May 15 $94 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5AM ET May 15 $86 +$8 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET May 13 $110 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11AM ET May 12 $105 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2AM ET May 12 $66 −$64 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET May 11 $62 +$4 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $212 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $202 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $347 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $109 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $202 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $218 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $202 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $297 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $75 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $201 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $275 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $267 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $267 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $244 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $244 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $206 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $35 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $171 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $182 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $182 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $160 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $159 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $150 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $150 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $145 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $144 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $141 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $140 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $131 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 690 history records