Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T14:51:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
3F 0x3f43…0e29 crypto 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 207d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$41 (-1%) realized −$40 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate95%21W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$210per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$124now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$76
7 days−$75
14 days−$75
30 days−$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% +$12
other 23% +$43
sports 15% −$101
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -4.7% -13.8% 80% 20% -16.4%
≤30d 5 -4.7% -13.8% 80% 20% -16.4%
≤90d 11 -2.0% -11.4% 91% 9% -12.3%
all 22 -0.4% -9.9% 95% 5% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 5% -10.4%
10% -18.5% 0% -19.0%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.8%
20% -33.6% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$130 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

207d coverage
Net worth$124
Realized−$40
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses21 / 1
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage207d
Avg bet$210
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 Over 94¢ 94¢ $125 $124 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $115 +$8 +7%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $245 −$130 -53%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $226 +$22 +10%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $202 +$24 +12%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 April 27-May 3? Jun 19 $200 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 April 20-26? Apr 30 $200 $0 +0%
USD.AI FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 23 $229 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 April 13-19? Apr 21 $228 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 April 6-12? Apr 15 $227 +$1 +0%
EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch? Apr 08 $227 $0 +0%
Backpack FDV above $5B one day after launch? Mar 28 $227 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Mar 18 $227 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 January 26-1? Feb 06 $225 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on January 27 Jan 28 $224 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 January 19-25? Jan 27 $224 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 January 12-18? Jan 25 $223 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 January 5-11? Jan 13 $220 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 December 29-January 4? Jan 06 $220 $0 +0%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Jan 03 $202 +$18 +9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 December 8-14? Dec 25 $202 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 December 1-7? Dec 11 $201 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 November 24-30? Dec 03 $200 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $125 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $115 17h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 45¢ $115 18h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $245 21h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 91¢ $226 45h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $202 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 April 27-May 3? BUY No 99¢ $200 52d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 April 20-26? BUY No 100¢ $200 60d
USD.AI FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 100¢ $229 62d
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 April 13-19? BUY No 100¢ $228 67d
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 April 6-12? BUY No 100¢ $227 75d
EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $227 86d
Backpack FDV above $5B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $227 96d
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $227 117d
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 January 26-1? BUY No 99¢ $225 144d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on January 27 BUY No 100¢ $224 146d
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 January 19-25? BUY No 100¢ $224 148d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 January 12-18? BUY No 99¢ $223 160d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 January 5-11? BUY No 99¢ $220 167d
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 December 29-January 4? BUY No 100¢ $220 170d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? BUY Yes 92¢ $202 179d
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 December 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $202 193d
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 December 1-7? BUY No 100¢ $201 201d
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 November 24-30? BUY No 99¢ $200 207d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $124.33 · official $124.34 (match) · 46 history records