Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:23:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
3F 0x3f44…fa88 world 7 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$570 (+13%) realized +$727 · open −$157
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate100%2W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$609per market
Trades / day17.3pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$1,791now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 83% +$787
other 17% −$131
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +36.7% +23.7% 100% 50% +23.6%
≤30d 2 +36.7% +23.7% 100% 50% +23.6%
≤90d 2 +36.7% +23.7% 100% 50% +23.6%
all 2 +36.7% +23.7% 100% 50% +23.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.3 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +23.7% 50% +23.6%
10% ← realistic here +11.8% 50% +11.8%
15% +1.0% 50% +1.0%
20% -8.9% 50% -8.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +37% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +37% · $-wt +37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$406 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$1,791
Realized+$727
Unrealized−$157
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses2 / 0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)2 / 7
History coverage2d
Avg bet$609
Trades / day17.3
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ 88¢ $1,044 $1,076 +$32 (+3%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? Yes 67¢ 54¢ $650 $519 −$131 (-20%)
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 5¢ 8¢ $80 $144 +$64 (+79%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 10¢ 5¢ $96 $52 −$44 (-46%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 39¢ 0¢ $78 $0 −$78 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $1,107 +$755 +68%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 18 $1,113 +$57 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $42 18m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $1 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $87 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $58 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $440 5h
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 6h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $1,862 10h
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 19h
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $35 35h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? SELL Yes 62¢ $79 35h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 36¢ $22 38h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 70¢ $54 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $255 2d
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 72¢ $113 2d
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 2d
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 2d
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 70¢ $85 2d
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 65¢ $6 2d
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 65¢ $60 2d
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 67¢ $103 2d
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 65¢ $0 2d
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 64¢ $46 2d
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 65¢ $84 2d
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 65¢ $49 2d
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 65¢ $49 2d
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 64¢ $63 2d
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 60¢ $11 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $203 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL No 94¢ $1,170 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $495 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,791.11 · official $1,791.11 (match) · 42 history records