Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:54:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

3F 0x3f48…188a crypto 4 markets active 13h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$100 (+15%) realized +$100 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip

Net edge+1%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate100%4W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$169per market

Trades / day7.0pace

Fees−$9est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+4.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+15.9%	+4.9%	100%	50%	+2.6%
≤30d	4	+15.9%	+4.9%	100%	50%	+2.6%
≤90d	4	+15.9%	+4.9%	100%	50%	+2.6%
all	4	+15.9%	+4.9%	100%	50%	+2.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+4.9%	50%	+2.6%
10%	-5.1%	25%	-7.2%
15%	-14.3%	25%	-16.2%
20%	-22.7%	0%	-24.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 54% · top 2 77% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +13% too few recent

Fragile wins

50% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +16% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$23 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$100

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses4 / 0

Est. fees paid−$9

Open positions0

Markets (closed)4 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$169

Trades / day7.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 4 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Jun 22	$51	+$21	+40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Jun 22	$25	$0	+1%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5	Jun 22	$226	+$21	+9%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 2.5	Jun 22	$374	+$49	+13%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	BUY Down	78¢	$25	13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	BUY Down	63¢	$26	13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	BUY Up	99¢	$25	13h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5	SELL Under	51¢	$246	20h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	45¢	$226	20h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 2.5	SELL Under	100¢	$423	20h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 2.5	BUY Under	88¢	$374	21h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 9 history records