Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:34:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
3F 0x3f4a…49b4 sports 67 markets active 1h ago coverage 45d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$606 (+5%) realized +$616 · open −$10
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate33%21W / 43L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$179per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$155est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$373now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$427
7 days+$1,999
14 days+$104
30 days+$272
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$1,801
other 24% +$2,039
crypto 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -13.9% -22.1% 44% 44% +17.8%
≤30d 47 -21.1% -28.6% 32% 32% -7.4%
≤90d 64 -16.2% -24.2% 33% 31% -7.5%
all 64 -16.2% -24.2% 33% 31% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.2% 31% -7.5%
10% -31.5% 30% -16.3%
15% -38.1% 28% -24.4%
20% -44.2% 25% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$220 vs −$101 · ×2.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$373
Realized+$616
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses21 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$155
Open positions1
Markets (closed)64 / 67
History coverage45d
Avg bet$179
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $383 $373 −$10 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 3 Japan? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $204 −$200 -98%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $204 −$200 -98%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $5 +$4 +76%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $5 +$1 +21%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $5 +$6 +119%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $5 +$8 +152%
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $5 +$4 +83%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $512 −$500 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -99%
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $510 −$35 -7%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $1,010 +$497 +49%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2,034 +$2,512 +124%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $512 −$500 -98%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $1,517 +$517 +34%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $613 −$600 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $1,577 +$595 +38%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$55 +55%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $205 −$23 -11%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 21 $205 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 20 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $614 −$600 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $409 −$400 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $266 −$260 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $148 −$144 -97%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $82 −$80 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $59 −$58 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $33 −$32 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $41 +$107 +262%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 +$15 +152%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$13 +65%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $41 +$245 +596%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 $0 -4%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $2 +$2 +119%
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $2 +$3 +140%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $393 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 27¢ $41 7h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes $10 7h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $204 17h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $204 31h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 AND Colombi BUY $5 2d
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $5 2d
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 54¢ $5 2d
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $5 2d
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $5 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 82¢ $5 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 15¢ $5 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $512 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 4d
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 4d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $475 5d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $510 5d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 66¢ $1,010 5d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 AND Co BUY 21¢ $102 6d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $512 6d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $1,416 7d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $613 7d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $101 7d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $1,017 7d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $1,017 7d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 72¢ $1,577 8d
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? SELL Yes 14¢ $182 8d
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $205 8d
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $205 8d
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 17¢ $205 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $373.36 · official $373.36 (match) · 102 history records