Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:23:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
3F 0x3f4a…a5a5 weather 762 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 54d only
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4,009 (+2%) realized +$3,960 · open +$49
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate96%727W / 33L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$308per market
Trades / day56.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$109
7 days+$649
14 days+$1,136
30 days+$2,204
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$3,815
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 +7.1% -3.1% 100% 13% -7.8%
≤30d 298 +4.1% -5.8% 98% 9% -7.7%
≤90d 760 +3.0% -6.8% 96% 8% -8.1%
all 760 +3.0% -6.8% 96% 8% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.8% 8% -8.1%
10% ← realistic here -15.7% 5% -16.9%
15% -23.9% 4% -24.9%
20% -31.3% 3% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×23.97 per $1 lost it wins $23.97
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized+$3,960
Unrealized+$49
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses727 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)760 / 762
History coverage54d ⚠
Avg bet$308
Trades / day56.4
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 760 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 28? Yes 22¢ 98¢ $14 $63 +$49 (+348%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 28? Jun 28 $232 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 28? Jun 28 $373 +$27 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 28? Jun 28 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 28? Jun 28 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 75°F or below on June 28? Jun 28 $399 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on June Jun 28 $798 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 28? Jun 28 $58 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 29? Jun 28 $141 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C or below on June 28? Jun 28 $197 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 28? Jun 28 $378 +$22 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C or below on June 28? Jun 28 $630 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 28? Jun 28 $396 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 28? Jun 28 $1,594 +$4 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 28? Jun 28 $372 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju Jun 27 $798 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 91°F or below on June 27? Jun 27 $399 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 27? Jun 27 $1,314 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 27? Jun 27 $55 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 27? Jun 27 $1,323 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 27? Jun 27 $797 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 27? Jun 27 $397 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 27? Jun 27 $66 +$8 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 27? Jun 27 $134 +$18 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 27? Jun 27 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 27? Jun 27 $791 +$8 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 26? Jun 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 26? Jun 26 $362 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 26? Jun 26 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 26? Jun 26 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 26? Jun 26 $46 +$114 +250%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on Ju Jun 26 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 26? Jun 26 $1,976 +$22 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 26? Jun 26 $399 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 26? Jun 26 $157 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 26? Jun 26 $203 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 25? Jun 26 $18 +$6 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 25? Jun 25 $372 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 59°F or below on June 25? Jun 25 $1,996 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 12°C on June 25? Jun 25 $1,992 +$6 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 13°C on June 25? Jun 25 $335 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 25? Jun 25 $116 +$17 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 81°F or below on June 25? Jun 25 $146 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 25? Jun 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 25? Jun 25 $86 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 25? Jun 25 $466 +$6 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 71°F or below on June Jun 25 $1,595 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on June 25? Jun 25 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on June 25? Jun 25 $399 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C or below on June 25? Jun 25 $301 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 24? Jun 24 $35 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $234 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $23 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $17 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 28? BUY Yes 22¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $83 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $99 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $400 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $34 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 28? BUY No 92¢ $309 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $41 2h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $25 2h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $25 2h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $41 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 75°F or below on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $320 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 75°F or below on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 75°F or below on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 75°F or below on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $70 3h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on June SELL No 100¢ $799 4h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on June BUY No 100¢ $399 4h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on June BUY No 100¢ $399 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 75°F or below on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $399 4h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $58 5h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $50 5h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $5 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.29 · official $62.87 (match) · 3500 history records