Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:16:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3F 0x3f4c…631c weather 277 markets active 0h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2,603 (+2%) realized +$2,511 · open +$92
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate92%253W / 23L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$378per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$500now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$7
14 days+$79
30 days−$320
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$2,583
crypto 0% +$4
other 0% +$5
sports 0% −$20
politics 0% +$3
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +3.3% -6.6% 89% 22% -9.4%
≤30d 31 -0.3% -9.8% 81% 10% -11.0%
≤90d 149 +1.0% -8.6% 94% 9% -8.3%
all 276 +3.1% -6.8% 92% 15% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 15% -7.4%
10% -15.7% 5% -16.2%
15% -23.8% 4% -24.3%
20% -31.3% 2% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$59 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.82 per $1 lost it wins $2.82
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$500
Realized+$2,511
Unrealized+$92
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses253 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)276 / 277
History coverage158d
Avg bet$378
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 276 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 24? No 82¢ 100¢ $408 $500 +$92 (+23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 24? Jun 24 $492 +$7 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 23? Jun 23 $494 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $427 +$68 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 22? Jun 22 $495 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 21? Jun 21 $495 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 21? Jun 21 $492 +$7 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $376 +$124 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1,485 +$15 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $878 −$226 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $495 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $474 +$21 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1,287 +$13 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $488 +$12 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $478 +$17 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $113 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $484 −$126 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $450 +$44 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $410 +$90 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 9? Jun 09 $645 +$7 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $891 −$313 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $475 +$19 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $487 +$11 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $863 +$9 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 7? Jun 07 $485 −$16 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $492 −$171 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on May 30? May 31 $891 +$9 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on May 30? May 30 $1,778 +$21 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on May 28? May 29 $1,562 +$16 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 28? May 29 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 27? May 27 $484 +$10 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 22? May 22 $462 +$33 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 22? May 22 $479 +$17 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 22? May 22 $495 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 21? May 21 $493 +$7 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on May 20? May 20 $107 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C or higher on May 11? May 11 $1,071 +$17 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 10? May 10 $786 +$10 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 10? May 10 $477 +$23 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 10? May 10 $476 +$24 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on May 9? May 09 $479 +$28 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 9? May 09 $486 −$94 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 8? May 08 $1,485 +$15 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 8? May 08 $495 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 8? May 08 $493 +$6 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 3? May 05 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 28? Apr 28 $495 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on April 27? Apr 27 $245 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 27? Apr 27 $483 +$17 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 27? Apr 27 $491 +$9 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 24? BUY No 82¢ $411 20m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 24? SELL No 68¢ $335 38m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 24? BUY No 89¢ $449 48m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $499 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 24? BUY No 99¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 24? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 24? BUY No 99¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 24? BUY No 98¢ $432 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 24? BUY No 99¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $499 29h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 23? BUY No 99¢ $494 29h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 22? SELL No 99¢ $495 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 22? BUY No 85¢ $427 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $497 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $48 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $447 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $499 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $492 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $495 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 74¢ $376 5d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $216 5d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $26 5d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $30 5d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $24 5d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $40 5d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $21 5d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $18 5d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $703 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $499.75 · official $499.75 (match) · 1255 history records