Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:22:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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3F 0x3f52…43de crypto 68 markets active 5d ago coverage 5d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 5d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (652 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,826 (-41%) realized −$3,789 · open −$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate29%21W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day652.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$574now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$123
other 6% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (652 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-34.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -26.5% -33.5% 33% 22% -20.6%
≤30d 73 -27.5% -34.4% 29% 23% -8.2%
≤90d 73 -27.5% -34.4% 29% 23% -8.2%
all 73 -27.5% -34.4% 29% 23% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover652.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.4% 23% -8.2%
10% ← realistic here -40.7% 22% -17.0%
15% -46.4% 22% -25.0%
20% -51.7% 22% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
50.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$237 vs −$93 · ×2.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$574
Realized−$3,789
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses21 / 52
Open positions52
Markets (closed)73 / 68
History coverage5d ⚠
Avg bet$136
Trades / day652.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 52 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 95¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 75¢ 94¢ $14 $18 +$3 (+25%)
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+0%)
Will Rodina win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 99¢ 100¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 86¢ $16 $17 +$0 (+1%)
Surf FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 91¢ 62¢ $23 $16 −$8 (-33%)
Will Daniel Quintero win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Greta Thunberg arrested by June 30? No 48¢ 96¢ $7 $15 +$8 (+101%)
Epic Games IPO before 2027? No 65¢ 88¢ $11 $15 +$4 (+35%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 3.0% and 4.0%? No 99¢ 99¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-0%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country? No 92¢ 100¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+8%)
Will the Republican Party win the WA-07 House seat? No 94¢ 94¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Saudi Arabia before 2027? No 99¢ 98¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 98¢ 99¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026? No 86¢ 93¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+8%)
Will Peter Attia be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? No 79¢ 99¢ $11 $13 +$3 (+26%)
Will USD/KRW hit 2000 (High) in 2026? No 94¢ 97¢ $12 $13 +$0 (+3%)
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? No 60¢ 88¢ $9 $13 +$4 (+47%)
Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? No 88¢ 78¢ $14 $13 −$2 (-11%)
Will Herculano Armando Bequinsa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? No 99¢ 97¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-2%)
Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-4%)
Will San Francisco Giants win the 2026 National League Championship Series? No 98¢ 100¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Will LA Galaxy win the 2026 MLS Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Will Databricks’ market cap be between $175B and $200B at market close on IPO day? No 99¢ 100¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 78¢ 40¢ $22 $11 −$11 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Connor McDavid win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 18 $17 $0 +2%
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 18 $11 +$10 +90%
Will Moon Jin-seok win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial Jun 18 $15 $0 +2%
Will Kweon Seong-dong win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial elec Jun 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will Matteo Berrettini win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $151 −$151 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $154 −$154 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $515 +$413 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 13 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $316 −$316 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $241 +$367 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $91 −$73 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $31 +$66 +210%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $123 −$20 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $67 −$57 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 13 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $220 −$220 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $49 +$63 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $64 −$16 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $22 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $145 +$224 +154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $88 −$88 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $129 +$80 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 13 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $53 −$46 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $124 −$84 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $216 +$508 +235%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $360 −$360 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $240 −$240 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 10 $62 +$10 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 10 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 10 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 10 $13 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 10 $134 −$101 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 10 $103 −$56 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 10 $41 +$59 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 10 $81 −$36 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 10 $80 −$30 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 08 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 08 $166 −$166 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $8 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $574.20 · official $574.20 (match) · 3500 history records