Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:29:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3f5a…f31d crypto 630 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (71 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$585 (+4%) realized +$648 · open −$63
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate54%338W / 286L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day70.7pace
Fees−$77est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$159now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$363
14 days+$563
30 days+$313
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 33% +$602
crypto 29% +$200
weather 27% −$118
other 7% −$200
politics 2% −$118
world 2% −$64
finance 1% −$38
tech 0% −$4
economics 0% −$3
culture 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (71 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 +9.2% -1.2% 67% 44% -0.9%
≤30d 624 -2.2% -11.5% 54% 37% -7.6%
≤90d 624 -2.2% -11.5% 54% 37% -7.6%
all 624 -2.2% -11.5% 54% 37% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover70.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 37% -7.6%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 31% -16.4%
15% -27.7% 26% -24.5%
20% -34.8% 22% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$13 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$159
Realized+$648
Unrealized−$63
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses338 / 286
Est. fees paid−$77
Open positions6
Markets (closed)624 / 630
History coverage28d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day70.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 624 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Yes 46¢ 44¢ $97 $91 −$5 (-5%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 95¢ 94¢ $52 $51 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 17? Yes 93¢ 100¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+7%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Up 56¢ 56¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 53¢ 0¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? Yes 63¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $56 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $383 +$175 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $28 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 17? Jun 17 $8 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $21 −$17 -80%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $45 +$39 +86%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $70 +$53 +76%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $148 +$100 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +22%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $101 +$98 +97%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $119 +$9 +8%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +68%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 $0 -2%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 Jun 16 $173 −$173 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $68 −$68 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $201 +$160 +79%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $201 −$201 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $96 +$171 +177%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $40 +$3 +6%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$5 +86%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $26 +$50 +188%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$4 +62%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $70 +$13 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$4 +70%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$2 -33%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $15 +$10 +65%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $50 +$49 +97%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$4 -37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $6 1m
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $2 11m
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $1 12m
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $8 12m
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $1 14m
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $8 14m
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $1 17m
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $1 17m
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $76 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $56 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $239 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $74 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $36 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $158.60 · official $160.60 · 2355 history records