Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:54:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3f60…dc70 world 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 292d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate38%21W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$1
world 31% −$10
politics 20% +$3
culture 3% +$1
sports 2% −$1
crypto 1% $0
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +0.4% -9.2% 33% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.6% 44% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 32% 0% -9.7%
all 55 -1.7% -11.1% 38% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 0% -9.6%
10% -19.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

292d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses21 / 34
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)55 / 57
History coverage292d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $24 +$1 +4%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $43 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $16 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $13 $0 -2%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $140 −$4 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $4 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $93 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 16 $88 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $96 −$1 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $100 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $85 +$6 +8%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $14 +$1 +4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $94 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $101 −$10 -10%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 26 $32 +$3 +8%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Apr 23 $115 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $115 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 21 $4 $0 -1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 21 $14 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $39 −$1 -4%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $657 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $657 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $658 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $8 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 05 $57 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 05 $14 −$1 -9%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 05 $715 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $250 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 11 $171 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 10 $170 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 09 $64 +$1 +1%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 09 $169 +$1 +1%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Oct 06 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 05 $26 $0 +2%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 02 $2 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in September? Oct 02 $28 $0 +1%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 18 $28 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 17 $28 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 17 $28 $0 -0%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30? Sep 16 $28 $0 +0%
Skye Valadez confirmed perp? Sep 16 $28 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in September? Sep 14 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 14 $28 $0 +0%
Will Native Markets win the USDH ticker? Sep 14 $5 −$5 -85%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 14 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 13 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 13 $2 $0 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $28 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $24 19h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 19h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $24 21h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $28 25h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $15 25h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $18 27h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $25 27h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $9 40h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $7 40h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $16 41h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $13 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $13 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $37 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 19¢ $37 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 42¢ $48 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 47¢ $54 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $52 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $41 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $78 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $15 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $4 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $99 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $100 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.96 · official $28.81 (match) · 210 history records