Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:36:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3f60…e482 world 75 markets active 8h ago coverage 534d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$30 (-1%) realized −$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate26%19W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$22
politics 23% $0
other 19% −$7
sports 9% −$4
economics 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.4% -10.8% 43% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 26 -2.3% -11.6% 38% 0% -11.9%
≤90d 64 -1.3% -10.7% 27% 0% -10.5%
all 72 -7.3% -16.1% 26% 0% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 0% -11.0%
10% -24.2% 0% -19.5%
15% -31.5% 0% -27.3%
20% -38.2% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

534d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses19 / 53
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)72 / 75
History coverage534d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 37¢ 33¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-9%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $14 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $12 +$1 +7%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $26 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $13 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $49 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $10 −$2 -15%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $12 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $95 +$1 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $14 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $14 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $28 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $76 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 04 $23 $0 -2%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $6 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $14 $0 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $49 −$8 -17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 28 $14 $0 +3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 25 $13 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $19 $0 -2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $37 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $31 −$11 -36%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $34 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 19 $66 $0 +0%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 18 $31 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 18 $32 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 18 $55 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $29 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 14 $31 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 8? May 06 $19 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 06 $35 −$4 -11%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $59 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $81 +$1 +2%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $2 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $36 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $33 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $31 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $34 $0 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $34 $0 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $33 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 14 $54 $0 -0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 13 $33 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $87 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 12 $3 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $34 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $34 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 10 $3 $0 -2%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $33 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 09 $34 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 8h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 8h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 47¢ $14 46h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $14 47h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $13 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $1 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $6 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $6 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $13 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $13 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $13 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $13 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $7 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $6 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $10 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $3 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $13 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 11¢ $8 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 44¢ $12 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 44¢ $12 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $15 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $15 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $15 9d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $15 9d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $14 10d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $14 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $5 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $10 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.62 · official $0.00 (match) · 282 history records