Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:52:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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3F 0x3f61…e259 crypto 481 markets active 2h ago coverage 148d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 148d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$20,337 (+1%) realized +$20,611 · open −$274
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate89%426W / 54L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,903per market
Trades / day20.7pace
Fees−$196est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 148d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% +$3,105
other 13% −$10,713
sports 1% −$1,290
world 0% −$4
tech 0% +$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -14.8% -22.9% 60% 25% -13.4%
≤30d 23 -12.9% -21.2% 61% 22% -12.0%
≤90d 72 -2.1% -11.4% 58% 12% -21.0%
all 480 +7.0% -3.2% 89% 3% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.7 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.2% 3% -9.8%
10% -12.5% 2% -18.5%
15% ← realistic here -20.9% 2% -26.3%
20% -28.7% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$4,985) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$767 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized+$20,611
Unrealized−$274
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses426 / 54
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$196
Open positions2
Markets (closed)480 / 481
History coverage148d ⚠
Avg bet$4,903
Trades / day20.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 480 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Over 4 coins launched in 2026 end the year in the top 100? Yes 66¢ 69¢ $49 $52 +$2 (+5%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 46¢ $277 $0 −$277 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $215 −$14 -6%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $802 +$158 +20%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $827 +$917 +111%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $545 −$545 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3,414 +$10 +0%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $883 +$41 +5%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $2,262 +$26 +1%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $2,089 −$2,089 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $267 −$267 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1,502 +$865 +58%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 15 $46 −$18 -39%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $1,017 +$14 +1%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2,205 +$69 +3%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $2,545 +$62 +2%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,282 +$34 +3%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $982 −$111 -11%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $445 −$290 -65%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,244 +$175 +14%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $451 +$166 +37%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $823 −$468 -57%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 0.5 May 30 $2,735 +$84 +3%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $420 −$52 -12%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 May 30 $1,908 +$180 +9%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? May 17 $906 +$37 +4%
Over $200M committed to the Printr public sale? May 13 $4,196 +$105 +2%
Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale? May 08 $1,265 +$171 +14%
Over $100M committed to the Printr public sale? May 08 $5,334 +$248 +5%
Over $150M committed to the Printr public sale? May 08 $2,150 +$232 +11%
Over $250M committed to the Printr public sale? May 08 $3,969 +$16 +0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? May 07 $6,411 −$126 -2%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? May 07 $2,729 +$9 +0%
USD1 depeg by December 31? May 07 $105 −$57 -54%
Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $11,689 −$83 -1%
Over $4M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $12,139 −$11,826 -97%
Over $3M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $13,322 −$11,945 -90%
Over $6M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $11,976 −$4,846 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Apr 29 $79 −$79 -100%
Over $8M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 29 $7,588 −$806 -11%
Over $15M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 29 $2,393 −$377 -16%
Over $10M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 29 $5,399 −$593 -11%
Over $2M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 29 $13,207 +$20 +0%
Over $1M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 28 $13,887 +$17 +0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $223 +$1 +0%
Over $250k committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 28 $4,965 +$35 +1%
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $54 $0 +0%
USD.AI FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 23 $1,252 +$3 +0%
USD.AI FDV above $3B one day after launch? Apr 23 $2,997 +$3 +0%
USD.AI FDV above $4B one day after launch? Apr 23 $4,995 +$5 +0%
USD.AI FDV above $200M one day after launch? Apr 23 $4,995 +$5 +0%
USD.AI FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 23 $6,487 +$17 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 13¢ $14 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 53¢ $267 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 63¢ $594 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 78¢ $78 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 90¢ $180 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 91¢ $13 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 91¢ $22 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 91¢ $40 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 80¢ $454 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 37¢ $30 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 42¢ $45 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 21¢ $18 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 24¢ $14 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 24¢ $0 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 24¢ $3 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 24¢ $8 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 88¢ $88 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 86¢ $33 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 86¢ $53 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons $1 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons $5 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons $1 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons $1 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons $10 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons $5 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons $0 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons $1 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons $14 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 12¢ $12 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 17¢ $4 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.84 · official $51.85 (match) · 3500 history records