Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:23:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3f63…89f3 sports 108 markets active 0h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,055 (-10%) realized −$1,110 · open +$55
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%44W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$164est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$226now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$265
7 days+$265
14 days+$120
30 days−$1,166
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$959
crypto 3% +$157
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +109.2% +89.3% 100% 100% +89.3%
≤30d 23 -29.4% -36.1% 35% 35% -38.2%
≤90d 107 -9.5% -18.1% 41% 41% -16.7%
all 107 -9.5% -18.1% 41% 41% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 41% -16.7%
10% -25.9% 40% -24.7%
15% -33.1% 40% -32.0%
20% -39.6% 38% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$105 vs −$87 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$226
Realized−$1,110
Unrealized+$55
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses44 / 63
Est. fees paid−$164
Open positions1
Markets (closed)107 / 108
History coverage50d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 64¢ $171 $226 +$55 (+32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
O/U 4.5 Rounds Jun 21 $243 +$265 +109%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $68 −$67 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 14 $449 −$381 -85%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $137 −$134 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $241 −$237 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $127 −$125 -98%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $118 −$116 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $76 +$77 +101%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 11 $66 +$66 +101%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $68 −$67 -99%
Game Handicap: DEWA (-1.5) vs Geek Fam ID (+1.5) Jun 10 $23 +$16 +70%
Counter-Strike: Abyssal vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Group Jun 09 $54 +$46 +86%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Jun 09 $129 +$125 +97%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $47 +$65 +139%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $558 +$587 +105%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $334 −$328 -98%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 07 $67 −$66 -98%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 07 $237 −$237 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $240 −$236 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Junior Tafa vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, M Jun 07 $29 −$28 -98%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 06 $199 −$196 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $139 −$137 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Priscila Cachoeira vs. Chelsea Chandler (Women's Bant Jun 06 $58 −$57 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 21 $285 −$285 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 21 $103 −$98 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 21 $49 −$46 -95%
Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) May 21 $55 −$55 -100%
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5) May 21 $74 −$74 -100%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs BNK FEARX (+1.5) May 21 $57 −$56 -98%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships May 21 $50 −$31 -63%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B May 20 $51 +$77 +152%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $53 −$45 -84%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs M80 (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 20 $29 +$32 +114%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Kiwoom DRX (+1.5) May 20 $42 −$21 -49%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TYLOO (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 20 $44 +$58 +133%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs MIBR (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group B May 20 $36 +$41 +114%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs NIP (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group B May 20 $27 −$26 -99%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Q May 19 $49 +$78 +158%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) May 19 $68 +$54 +79%
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers - Game 2 May 18 $31 −$31 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 18 $198 +$301 +152%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - BC Game Masters Eur May 18 $114 −$114 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Just Players (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Gro May 18 $30 −$29 -96%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner May 18 $46 −$46 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 3 Winner May 17 $67 −$66 -99%
Game Handicap: BRO (-1.5) vs Kiwoom DRX (+1.5) May 17 $61 +$43 +71%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 17 $371 +$318 +86%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) May 17 $62 −$61 -98%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Heroic (+1.5) May 10 $44 −$24 -55%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs Kiwoom DRX (+1.5) May 10 $31 +$89 +284%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $25 28m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $149 29m
O/U 4.5 Rounds SELL Under 100¢ $508 1h
O/U 4.5 Rounds BUY Under 47¢ $243 2h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 12¢ $68 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 SELL Over 8¢ $67 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 BUY Over 50¢ $449 7d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $137 7d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 45¢ $241 7d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY TheMongolz 44¢ $127 7d
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) BUY KT Rolster 51¢ $118 7d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Hanwha Life Esports 49¢ $76 8d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) BUY FUT Esports 49¢ $1 9d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) BUY FUT Esports 49¢ $65 9d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY TheMongolz 53¢ $68 9d
Game Handicap: DEWA (-1.5) vs Geek Fam ID (+1.5) SELL Geek Fam ID 100¢ $40 10d
Game Handicap: DEWA (-1.5) vs Geek Fam ID (+1.5) BUY Geek Fam ID 58¢ $23 10d
Counter-Strike: Abyssal vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Group BUY Rooster 53¢ $54 11d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 BUY Over 50¢ $129 12d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL FUT Esports 100¢ $112 13d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY FUT Esports 41¢ $47 13d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 48¢ $558 13d
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai BUY Edmen Shahbazyan 38¢ $334 14d
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 47¢ $67 14d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 53¢ $28 14d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 53¢ $2 14d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 53¢ $34 14d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 53¢ $53 14d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 53¢ $11 14d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 53¢ $1 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $225.77 · official $225.77 (match) · 257 history records