Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:08:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3f64…452a weather 506 markets active 2h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,826 (-12%) realized −$4,846 · open +$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate83%418W / 85L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day16.4pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$531now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$22
14 days−$3,622
30 days−$3,356
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% −$4,025
weather 49% −$1,209
other 2% −$909
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +0.6% -9.0% 85% 0% -7.2%
≤30d 303 -5.4% -14.4% 86% 4% -18.8%
≤90d 443 -4.6% -13.7% 84% 5% -21.2%
all 503 -4.1% -13.3% 83% 8% -20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 8% -20.9%
10% -21.6% 3% -28.5%
15% -29.2% 2% -35.4%
20% -36.1% 1% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -1% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$101 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$531
Realized−$4,846
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses418 / 85
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions3
Markets (closed)503 / 506
History coverage137d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day16.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 503 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 27? No 97¢ 100¢ $249 $257 +$8 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 27? No 96¢ 100¢ $196 $205 +$8 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 27°C on June 27? No 94¢ 100¢ $65 $69 +$4 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 25? Jun 27 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 25? Jun 27 $80 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 25? Jun 27 $80 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 25? Jun 27 $80 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 25? Jun 27 $28 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 8°C on June 25? Jun 27 $80 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 9°C on June 25? Jun 27 $80 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 26? Jun 27 $80 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 25? Jun 27 $80 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on June 26? Jun 27 $80 +$8 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 25? Jun 27 $160 +$6 +4%
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? Jun 26 $5 −$1 -15%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 26 $20 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 17? Jun 18 $35 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17? Jun 18 $80 +$5 +7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 16? Jun 17 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 16? Jun 17 $14 $0 +1%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 +$3 +19%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 16? Jun 17 $47 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 16? Jun 17 $80 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 16? Jun 17 $80 +$3 +4%
Will Deportivo Pereira win on 2026-02-14? Jun 17 $455 −$909 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 31? Jun 17 $135 −$259 -192%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 25? Jun 17 $5 −$10 -199%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on May 31? Jun 17 $5 −$10 -199%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 23? Jun 17 $5 −$10 -198%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 25? Jun 17 $10 −$20 -199%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on May 24? Jun 17 $20 −$30 -148%
Will Real Zaragoza win on 2026-04-18? Jun 17 $5 −$10 -198%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 12? Jun 17 $80 −$160 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C or higher on June 6? Jun 17 $80 −$160 -199%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 5? Jun 17 $201 −$266 -133%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 2? Jun 17 $115 −$230 -199%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 7? Jun 17 $201 −$400 -199%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $752 −$752 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $800 +$16 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C or below on June 14? Jun 15 $17 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 14? Jun 15 $80 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on June 14? Jun 15 $80 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 14? Jun 15 $80 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 14? Jun 15 $80 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? Jun 15 $80 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 14? Jun 15 $80 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? Jun 15 $80 +$7 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 14? Jun 15 $160 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? Jun 15 $160 +$6 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? Jun 15 $161 +$14 +8%
ITF Casablanca: Elina Nepliy vs Carlota Martinez Cirez Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
ITF Casablanca: Emma Lene vs Verena Meliss Jun 14 $25 +$3 +12%
Paris FC vs. Stade Brestois 29: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 27? BUY No 97¢ $150 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 27? BUY No 94¢ $47 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 27? BUY No 97¢ $150 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 27? BUY No 97¢ $99 21h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 27°C on June 27? BUY No 94¢ $65 22h
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? SELL No 45¢ $4 40h
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 48¢ $8 40h
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL Boston Red Sox 50¢ $11 40h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on June 26? BUY No 91¢ $80 44h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 26? BUY No 97¢ $80 46h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 8°C on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $80 2d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $80 2d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $80 2d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 9°C on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $80 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 25? BUY No 98¢ $28 2d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 25? BUY No 97¢ $80 2d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $80 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 25? BUY No 96¢ $80 2d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 25? BUY No 96¢ $80 2d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 92¢ $251 10d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 92¢ $251 10d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 92¢ $251 10d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $80 10d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $35 10d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 98¢ $267 10d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 98¢ $267 10d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 98¢ $267 10d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 84¢ $5 10d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 83¢ $5 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $531.44 · official $530.54 (match) · 2850 history records