Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T12:18:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
3F 0x3f68…32da other 112 markets active 2h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,587 (-1%) realized −$1,587 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate18%20W / 91L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$977per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$573now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$6
14 days−$16
30 days−$1,313
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$86
politics 29% −$43
sports 18% −$1,624
culture 2% −$2
world 1% −$10
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 20 -5.1% -14.1% 10% 0% -13.6%
≤90d 49 -3.9% -13.0% 6% 0% -11.9%
all 111 -2.0% -11.3% 18% 14% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 14% -10.9%
10% -19.8% 14% -19.4%
15% -27.5% 12% -27.2%
20% -34.6% 7% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,475) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$29 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$573
Realized−$1,587
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses20 / 91
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)111 / 112
History coverage130d
Avg bet$977
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $573 $573 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 25 $483 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $461 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $951 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $3,511 −$4 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 18 $395 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $845 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $912 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 13 $864 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $3,378 −$4 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $1,846 −$2 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $2,226 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $808 −$1 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $814 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $3,831 −$4 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $3,672 −$4 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $883 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 04 $31 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in May? Jun 04 $46 $0 +0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $1,850 −$2 -0%
Knicks vs. Hawks May 31 $1,280 −$1,280 -100%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $2,533 −$3 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $1,615 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $1,268 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $3,146 −$3 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $1,475 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $1,191 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $1,457 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $742 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $1,774 −$2 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $2,252 −$3 -0%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Royal Challengers Bangalore Apr 10 $520 −$450 -86%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $523 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 04 $495 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 03 $930 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $547 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $3,268 −$3 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 02 $681 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $714 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $1,684 −$2 -0%
Based FDV above $800M one day after launch? Apr 01 $62 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 31 $875 −$1 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 31 $1,805 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 30 $600 −$1 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 30 $1,484 −$2 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 29 $2,091 −$2 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 29 $1,923 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 29 $3,545 −$4 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 27 $917 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 27 $1,575 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $483 1h
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $483 3h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $460 5d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $461 5d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $488 5d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $489 5d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $487 6d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $488 6d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $394 7d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $395 7d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $573 9d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $844 11d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $845 11d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $910 11d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $912 12d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $863 12d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $864 12d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $831 13d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $832 13d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $769 13d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $769 13d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $887 18d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $889 18d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $807 19d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $808 19d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $812 20d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $814 20d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $861 20d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $863 20d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $780 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $573.14 · official $573.14 (match) · 403 history records