Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:33:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
3F 0x3f69…0348 crypto 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-11%) realized −$19 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%12W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$23
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 58% −$2
crypto 28% +$1
economics 12% −$23
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -52.1% -56.7% 0% 0% -85.5%
≤90d 2 -52.1% -56.7% 0% 0% -85.5%
all 38 -10.1% -18.6% 32% 32% -33.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 32% -33.7%
10% -26.4% 32% -40.1%
15% -33.5% 32% -45.9%
20% -40.0% 32% -51.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -84% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +36% → late -56% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized−$19
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses12 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage133d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $111 $109 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $24 −$23 -95%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 17 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Feb 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Feb 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2PM ET Feb 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Feb 14 $1 +$3 +215%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Feb 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Feb 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Feb 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Feb 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Feb 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Feb 14 $2 +$4 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Feb 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Feb 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Feb 13 $2 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Feb 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Feb 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Feb 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Feb 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Feb 13 $2 +$2 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Feb 13 $2 +$4 +179%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Feb 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Feb 13 $2 +$6 +264%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Feb 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Feb 13 $2 +$3 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Feb 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Feb 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Feb 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Feb 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Feb 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Feb 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Feb 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Feb 13 $1 +$1 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Feb 13 $1 +$2 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Feb 13 $1 +$2 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Feb 13 $1 +$1 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Feb 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Feb 13 $1 +$4 +422%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? BUY Yes 28¢ $114 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $24 9d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $4 9d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $2 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 131d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 131d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 131d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 131d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 131d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 131d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 131d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 131d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 131d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 132d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 132d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 132d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 132d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 132d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 132d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 132d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 132d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 132d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 132d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 132d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 132d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.65 · official $108.65 (match) · 78 history records