Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:35:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3f70…b64f crypto 107 markets active 0h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-4%) realized −$8 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate38%34W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$6
crypto 38% −$22
tech 8% +$7
world 6% +$1
sports 3% $0
politics 2% −$2
finance 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -14.9% -23.0% 50% 44% -1.6%
≤30d 38 +14.3% +3.4% 45% 42% +1.5%
≤90d 90 +2.9% -6.9% 38% 33% -13.5%
all 90 +2.9% -6.9% 38% 33% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 33% -13.5%
10% -15.8% 29% -21.8%
15% -24.0% 27% -29.4%
20% -31.4% 20% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized−$8
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses34 / 56
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions14
Markets (closed)90 / 107
History coverage42d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $81 $78 −$3 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-5%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 14¢ 50¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+254%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+22%)
Will Iran legalize gay marriage? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Under 24¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 36¢ 32¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Claude go down 9-11 times in June? Yes 37¢ 30¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 34¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-24%)
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? Yes 35¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-84%)
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? No 36¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -89%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -65%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -81%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -89%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 14 $2 $0 -20%
Will Claude go down 6-8 times in June? Jun 14 $1 $0 +48%
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026? Jun 14 $3 +$4 +145%
Will Claude go down 12+ times in June? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 14 $3 $0 +6%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +97%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +22%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +24%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 14 $10 +$4 +44%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $5 +$6 +122%
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? Jun 01 $1 +$1 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 31 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Alex Borg be the next Prime Minister of Malta following the 2026 May 30 $1 −$1 -97%
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? May 28 $1 −$1 -50%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 May 25 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 24 $2 −$2 -95%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026? May 23 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 22 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET May 22 $2 +$1 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 22 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 22 $2 +$2 +111%
Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17? May 21 $1 +$2 +178%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) May 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1 +$1 +64%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1 +$12 +1126%
Will Malta be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1 −$1 -60%
Will Malta be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Malta be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026? May 16 $3 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 12 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world May 11 $2 +$1 +47%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 09 $3 +$1 +37%
Will Google have the second highest estimated revenue for May 11–May 1 May 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 06 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY 21¢ $5 29m
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 24¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 17h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $83 21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No $0 21h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 21h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes $0 21h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No $0 21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No $0 21h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 21h
Will Claude go down 6-8 times in June? SELL Yes 42¢ $2 21h
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026? SELL No 74¢ $8 21h
Will Claude go down 12+ times in June? SELL No 82¢ $6 21h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 62¢ $3 21h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 23h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY 19¢ $1 24h
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 79¢ $2 24h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $4 24h
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $4 24h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 95¢ $15 24h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY 16¢ $1 24h
Will Iran legalize gay marriage? BUY Yes $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.70 · official $102.70 · 184 history records