Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:44:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
3F 0x3f71…13a5 other 40 markets active 0h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$2 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate51%20W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$150now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$112
7 days+$21
14 days+$19
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% +$33
world 16% −$7
sports 5% −$26
economics 0% $0
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -1.9% -11.2% 57% 57% -8.1%
≤30d 37 -5.4% -14.4% 54% 46% -8.8%
≤90d 39 -10.3% -18.8% 51% 44% -9.5%
all 39 -10.3% -18.8% 51% 44% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.8% 44% -9.5%
10% -26.6% 18% -18.2%
15% -33.7% 13% -26.1%
20% -40.2% 8% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$13 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$150
Realized−$2
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses20 / 19
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage39d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? No 90¢ 90¢ $151 $150 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $121 +$19 +16%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $3 −$2 -68%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $93 +$40 +44%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $81 +$12 +15%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $65 +$12 +18%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $13 −$8 -61%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -81%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $67 +$11 +16%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $59 +$9 +14%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$6 +12%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 −$3 -41%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $40 +$11 +27%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 −$2 -24%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 +$15 +99%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $82 −$34 -41%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $57 +$25 +44%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $48 +$10 +21%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $43 +$5 +11%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $26 −$12 -47%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $116 −$74 -64%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$26 +131%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $11 −$8 -73%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $91 +$15 +16%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $33 +$10 +31%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $112 −$55 -49%
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Jun 13 $3 $0 -6%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $78 +$13 +17%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $24 −$18 -73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +105%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -63%
Will Wesley So win Norway Chess 2026? Jun 05 $5 −$2 -38%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 05 $2 $0 -14%
US recession by end of 2026? Jun 04 $3 $0 -2%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 01 $8 −$8 -100%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by May 31? Jun 01 $4 $0 +5%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $4 $0 +0%
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31? May 27 $4 $0 +6%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 10 $1 −$1 -96%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY No 90¢ $9 9m
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY No 90¢ $9 9m
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY No 90¢ $11 9m
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY No 90¢ $9 9m
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY No 90¢ $11 9m
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY No 90¢ $11 9m
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY No 90¢ $11 10m
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY No 90¢ $79 10m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 90¢ $140 33m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $121 1h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? SELL No 11¢ $1 11h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY No 33¢ $3 11h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? SELL No 99¢ $21 12h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? SELL No 99¢ $5 12h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? SELL No 99¢ $5 12h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? SELL No 99¢ $47 12h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? SELL No 99¢ $56 12h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? BUY No 69¢ $38 12h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? BUY No 69¢ $22 12h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? BUY No 69¢ $33 12h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? SELL No 100¢ $94 12h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? BUY No 87¢ $81 13h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $77 13h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 13h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 13h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 13h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 13h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 13h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 13h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $149.98 · official $147.46 · 114 history records