Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:53:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3F 0x3f74…d8ad crypto 103 markets active 6d ago coverage 222d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$163 (-5%) realized −$163 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate36%37W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$146
other 3% +$4
sports 1% −$17
politics 0% $0
weather 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-53.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 4 -73.4% -75.9% 25% 0% -14.1%
≤90d 21 -65.1% -68.5% 33% 0% -13.9%
all 103 -48.5% -53.4% 36% 1% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -53.4% 1% -14.1%
10% -57.9% 1% -22.3%
15% -62.0% 1% -29.8%
20% -65.7% 1% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -49% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -64% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

222d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$163
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses37 / 66
Open positions0
Markets (closed)103 / 103
History coverage222d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 103 Trades
no open positions (60 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on June 3? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 27? May 27 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on May 26? May 26 $46 +$3 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 17? May 17 $40 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 10? May 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down on May 9? May 09 $38 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 27? Apr 26 $2 −$2 -93%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on April 13? Apr 26 $39 +$2 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $96,000 and $98,000 on November 1 Apr 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on April 11? Apr 11 $2 −$2 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 5? Apr 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 1? Apr 01 $2 −$2 -93%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on December 4? Apr 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on March 31? Mar 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on November 18? Mar 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $100,000 and $102,000 on November Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 29? Mar 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on March 24? Mar 26 $43 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on March 22? Mar 23 $43 +$3 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 18? Mar 21 $36 +$1 +4%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on February 1? Jan 31 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $80,000 on January 31? Jan 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on January 31 Jan 30 $123 −$123 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on January 30? Jan 30 $126 +$3 +3%
Presbyterian Blue Hose vs. High Point Panthers Jan 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 6PM ET Jan 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on January 28 Jan 28 $127 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on January 28? Jan 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on January 27 Jan 27 $127 +$3 +2%
McNeese State Cowboys vs. Southeastern Louisiana Lions Jan 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,000 and $3,100 on January 26? Jan 26 $131 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on January 27? Jan 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $84,000 on January 26? Jan 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.90 on January 24? Jan 25 $128 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on January 23? Jan 24 $129 +$2 +2%
San Francisco Dons vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs Jan 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on January 23? Jan 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2,900 on January 22? Jan 23 $131 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2,800 on January 23? Jan 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 22? Jan 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 21? Jan 21 $135 +$2 +2%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.10 on January 22? Jan 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on January 21? Jan 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $2.00 and $2.10 on January 21? Jan 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on January 21? Jan 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on January 21 Jan 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down on January 20? Jan 20 $144 +$3 +2%
San Jose State Spartans vs. Nevada Wolf Pack Jan 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on January 19? Jan 20 $144 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 12? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on June 3? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 27? BUY No 3¢ $1 21d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on May 26? BUY No 94¢ $46 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 17? BUY No 96¢ $40 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 10? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 38d
Solana Up or Down on May 9? BUY Up 97¢ $38 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 27? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 52d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on April 13? BUY No 95¢ $39 65d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on April 11? BUY No 8¢ $2 67d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 1? BUY No 2¢ $2 77d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on March 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 79d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 29? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 81d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on March 24? BUY No 97¢ $43 86d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on March 22? BUY No 94¢ $0 87d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on March 22? BUY No 94¢ $43 87d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 18? BUY No 96¢ $36 91d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on February 1? BUY No 11¢ $8 137d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $80,000 on January 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 137d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on January 31 BUY No 98¢ $0 137d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on January 31 BUY No 98¢ $123 137d
Presbyterian Blue Hose vs. High Point Panthers BUY Presbyterian Blue Hose 7¢ $4 139d
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on January 30? BUY No 97¢ $0 139d
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on January 30? BUY No 97¢ $125 139d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 6PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 139d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on January 28 BUY No 98¢ $0 140d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on January 28 BUY No 98¢ $127 140d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on January 28? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 141d
McNeese State Cowboys vs. Southeastern Louisiana Lions BUY Southeastern Louisiana Lions 11¢ $2 141d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on January 27 BUY No 98¢ $0 141d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 164 history records