Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:53:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3F 0x3f74…8741 other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$59 (+12%) realized +$87 · open −$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate40%4W / 6L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day35.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$179now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% +$21
world 18% −$21
sports 13% +$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +29.4% +17.1% 40% 30% +12.0%
≤30d 10 +29.4% +17.1% 40% 30% +12.0%
≤90d 10 +29.4% +17.1% 40% 30% +12.0%
all 10 +29.4% +17.1% 40% 30% +12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +17.1% 30% +12.0%
10% ← realistic here +5.9% 30% +1.3%
15% -4.3% 30% -8.5%
20% -13.7% 30% -17.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$11 · ×3.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.07 per $1 lost it wins $2.07
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$179
Realized+$87
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses4 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)10 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day35.0
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $58 $56 −$2 (-4%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 48¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? No 8¢ 4¢ $34 $15 −$19 (-56%)
Will there be 10+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-14%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-24%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Neymar score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $39 −$3 -9%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $37 +$77 +205%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $29 +$42 +142%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $12 +$17 +137%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $75 −$44 -58%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 21 $7 $0 +1%
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 21 $26 −$4 -17%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $27 −$1 -5%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $27 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $36 1h
Will Neymar score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $36 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $58 1h
Will Neymar score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $39 1h
Will there be 10+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $15 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 2h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 2h
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $5 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $114 8h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Under 91¢ $71 8h
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 9¢ $12 8h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 41¢ $12 9h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 29¢ $25 10h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 37¢ $29 10h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 42¢ $30 10h
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $8 10h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $12 11h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 5¢ $12 11h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $24 12h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 7¢ $24 12h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 12h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 12h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 2¢ $7 12h
Uruguay leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 12h
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 99¢ $7 13h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 3¢ $7 13h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $25 14h
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? BUY No 12¢ $21 15h
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL Yes 24¢ $21 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $179.21 · official $179.21 (match) · 38 history records