Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:06:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
3F 0x3f76…5b9b sports 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 24d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$401 (-42%) realized −$433 · open +$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$161per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$228
7 days−$228
14 days−$123
30 days−$403
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% −$358
crypto 31% +$2
world 12% −$119
other 10% +$105
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-43.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 5 -38.0% -43.9% 40% 20% -49.9%
≤90d 5 -38.0% -43.9% 40% 20% -49.9%
all 5 -38.0% -43.9% 40% 20% -49.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.9% 20% -49.9%
10% -49.3% 20% -54.7%
15% -54.2% 20% -59.1%
20% -58.7% 20% -63.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$170 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized−$433
Unrealized+$32
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage24d
Avg bet$161
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Under 46¢ 72¢ $55 $87 +$32 (+58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $231 −$228 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $95 +$105 +109%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $164 −$162 -99%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May? Jun 01 $298 +$2 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 30 $119 −$119 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 46¢ $56 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $231 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $95 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $164 14d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $119 23d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May? BUY No 99¢ $298 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.00 · official $87.00 (match) · 10 history records