Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:05:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3F
0x3f76…3c44
sports · 404 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,723 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,704 · open −$19
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$153
Realized−$1,704
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses183 / 197
Est. fees paid−$283
Open positions24
Markets (closed)380 / 404
History coverage16d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day209.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 24 History 380 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1,136
14 days−$1,956
30 days−$1,704
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Sashi Academy vs STATE (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group A STATE 83¢ 81¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BetBoom Team 33¢ 32¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playoffs OLDBOYS- 54¢ 52¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-5%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 PARIVISION 56¢ 70¢ $12 $15 +$3 (+25%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 47¢ 70¢ $8 $11 +$4 (+49%)
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs GenOne (+1.5) GenOne 67¢ 72¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Aurora Gaming 38¢ 38¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Legacy 56¢ 60¢ $9 $9 +$1 (+6%)
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5) Aurora Gaming 43¢ 42¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage GenOne 43¢ 50¢ $5 $5 +$1 (+17%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Legacy 31¢ 30¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Map Handicap: URSA (-1.5) vs Leo Team (+1.5) Leo Team 64¢ 64¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs Legacy (+3.5) Legacy 59¢ 60¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Map Handicap: OLDBOYS PL (-1.5) vs Donstu Esports (+1.5) OLDBOYS PL 33¢ 29¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-12%)
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs Legacy (+3.5) Legacy 53¢ 54¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) G2 63¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$1 (-21%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner GenOne 45¢ 47¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner GenOne 45¢ 48¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Aurora Gaming 15¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Legacy 34¢ 34¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Aurora Gaming 24¢ 24¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs Abyssal (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Group A Abyssal 76¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 MOUZ 42¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Map Handicap: Abyssal (-1.5) vs MARKandLARRY (+1.5) Abyssal 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 12 $8 +$3 +33%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: PARIVISION (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) Jun 12 $2 +$3 +167%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $6 +$5 +87%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $18 +$14 +77%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $2 +$1 +72%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $5 +$6 +114%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 12 $11 +$5 +41%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Jun 12 $4 +$1 +23%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 12 $16 +$10 +66%
Map Handicap: ex-RUBY (-1.5) vs G2 Ares (+1.5) Jun 12 $2 +$3 +140%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs F5 Esports (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoffs Jun 12 $19 +$2 +9%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $3 +$2 +51%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Natus Vincere (+3.5) Jun 11 $5 +$6 +114%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Map Handicap: OXUJI (-1.5) vs Bebop (+1.5) Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 11 $2 +$3 +160%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $7 +$3 +49%
Map Handicap: KOL (-1.5) vs HEROIC Academy (+1.5) Jun 11 $14 +$12 +80%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs KOLESIE (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group S Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $6 +$5 +76%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 11 $11 +$5 +47%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MOUZ (-3.5) vs Legacy (+3.5) Jun 11 $2 +$4 +178%
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 11 $2 +$4 +182%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $3 +$2 +61%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $6 +$4 +72%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage Jun 11 $36 −$13 -36%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Seri Jun 11 $16 +$26 +163%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 11 $2 +$3 +114%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $4 +$10 +215%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: TheMongolz (-3.5) vs BetBoom Team (+3.5) Jun 11 $3 +$2 +61%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $9 +$7 +79%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: TheMongolz (-3.5) vs BetBoom Team (+3.5) Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs KOLESIE (+1.5) Jun 11 $6 +$4 +65%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $2 +$4 +160%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: PARIVISION (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $3 +$2 +72%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $3 +$3 +105%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group S Jun 10 $25 −$25 -100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $23 −$23 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% −$1,723
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) SELL G2 100¢ $10 1m
Map Handicap: URSA (-1.5) vs Leo Team (+1.5) BUY Leo Team 64¢ $3 6m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 33¢ $2 6m
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ BUY OLDBOYS- 56¢ $3 6m
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: PARIVISION (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) SELL PARIVISION 100¢ $5 16m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 33¢ $2 21m
Counter-Strike: Sashi Academy vs STATE (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group A BUY STATE 82¢ $4 21m
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ BUY OLDBOYS- 53¢ $3 21m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner SELL PARIVISION 100¢ $10 31m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner SELL Hanwha Life Esports 100¢ $32 46m
Counter-Strike: Sashi Academy vs STATE (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group A BUY STATE 83¢ $4 1h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 38¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 33¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Academy vs STATE (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group A BUY STATE 82¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ BUY OLDBOYS- 57¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 33¢ $2 1h
Map Handicap: OLDBOYS PL (-1.5) vs Donstu Esports (+1.5) BUY OLDBOYS PL 33¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Academy vs STATE (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group A BUY STATE 83¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ BUY OLDBOYS- 54¢ $3 1h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 54¢ $3 1h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 54¢ $3 1h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 56¢ $3 1h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 54¢ $3 1h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 55¢ $3 1h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 54¢ $3 1h
Map Handicap: OLDBOYS PL (-1.5) vs Donstu Esports (+1.5) BUY OLDBOYS PL 33¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 33¢ $2 1h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs Legacy (+3.5) BUY Legacy 59¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 58¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY PARIVISION 52¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 226 -9.1% -17.7% 51% 50% -22.8%
≤30d 380 -1.0% -10.5% 48% 46% -18.0%
≤90d 380 -1.0% -10.5% 48% 46% -18.0%
all 380 -1.0% -10.5% 48% 46% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover209.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 46% -18.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 44% -25.9%
15% -26.9% 40% -33.0%
20% -34.0% 32% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $153.36 · official $153.37 (match) · 3500 history records