Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:13:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3F 0x3f79…9290 sports 67 markets active 1d ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$929 (+4%) realized +$929 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%27W / 40L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$351per market
Trades / day15.8pace
Fees−$281est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$750
7 days+$1,078
14 days+$717
30 days+$717
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$4
other 17% +$1,015
world 3% −$238
crypto 0% −$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -5.2% -14.2% 41% 41% -4.8%
≤30d 67 -7.5% -16.3% 40% 40% -6.7%
≤90d 67 -7.5% -16.3% 40% 40% -6.7%
all 67 -7.5% -16.3% 40% 40% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 40% -6.7%
10% -24.3% 39% -15.6%
15% -31.6% 39% -23.8%
20% -38.3% 33% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$570) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -17% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$411 vs −$259 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$929
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses27 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$281
Open positions0
Markets (closed)67 / 67
History coverage7d
Avg bet$351
Trades / day15.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 67 Trades
no open positions (34 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $255 −$250 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $507 −$500 -99%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $559 +$575 +103%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $51 −$16 -31%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $82 +$11 +13%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $305 −$300 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $607 +$409 +67%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $123 +$147 +120%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $255 −$250 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $304 +$213 +70%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $608 −$600 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $710 −$700 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $508 +$390 +77%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $354 +$210 +59%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $303 +$158 +52%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $509 +$841 +165%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $609 +$608 +100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $607 +$392 +64%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $304 −$300 -99%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $1,018 +$1,479 +145%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $507 −$118 -23%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $72 −$70 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $708 −$700 -99%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $103 −$66 -64%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $72 −$68 -94%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $507 −$500 -99%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $509 −$500 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $304 +$267 +88%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $255 +$598 +234%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $50 −$49 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $711 −$700 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $909 +$421 +46%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $406 +$378 +93%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $72 −$70 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $812 +$725 +89%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $72 −$70 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $304 −$300 -99%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $72 −$70 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $814 −$800 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $103 −$57 -55%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $760 −$750 -99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $660 −$650 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $203 −$200 -99%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $646 +$243 +38%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $164 −$163 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $637 +$385 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $255 35h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $507 35h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Colombia 99¢ $1,134 2d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? SELL Yes 8¢ $35 2d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? SELL Yes 19¢ $93 2d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 2d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 16¢ $82 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $305 2d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 48¢ $559 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1,016 2d
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? SELL Yes 77¢ $205 2d
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 32¢ $61 2d
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? SELL Yes 31¢ $60 2d
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 11¢ $62 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $255 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $607 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $517 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $304 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $608 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $710 2d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 99¢ $538 3d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 67¢ $361 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $564 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $354 3d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $508 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $461 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $1,350 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $624 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 SELL Under 95¢ $593 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $303 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 124 history records