Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:00:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3F 0x3f7a…0b7b sports 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$64 (+0%) realized +$64 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%14W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$1,676per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$59
7 days+$82
14 days+$82
30 days+$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$53
other 27% +$30
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +0.5% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 14 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 14 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 14 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 0% -9.2%
10% -17.7% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$64
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses14 / 0
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage54d
Avg bet$1,676
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $509 +$1 +0%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 21 $5,541 +$18 +0%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 21 $1,526 +$3 +0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 21 $499 +$1 +0%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 20 $3,298 +$12 +0%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $999 +$1 +0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 19 $498 +$1 +0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $4,579 +$21 +0%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 19 $2,252 +$8 +0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $194 +$6 +3%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 19 $525 +$1 +0%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 18 $2,992 +$8 +0%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Minnesota Twins 100¢ $999 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 100¢ $27 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 100¢ $102 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 100¢ $359 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Minnesota Twins 100¢ $499 1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Minnesota Twins 100¢ $10 1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Minnesota Twins 100¢ $499 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics SELL Los Angeles Angels 100¢ $530 1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Minnesota Twins 100¢ $499 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics SELL Los Angeles Angels 100¢ $499 1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Minnesota Twins 100¢ $499 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics SELL Los Angeles Angels 100¢ $499 1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Minnesota Twins 100¢ $500 1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Minnesota Twins 100¢ $5 1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Minnesota Twins 100¢ $394 2h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Los Angeles Angels 100¢ $529 2h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Los Angeles Angels 100¢ $997 2h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Minnesota Twins 100¢ $5 2h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Minnesota Twins 100¢ $149 2h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Minnesota Twins 100¢ $217 2h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Minnesota Twins 100¢ $96 2h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Minnesota Twins 100¢ $249 2h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Minnesota Twins 100¢ $249 2h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Minnesota Twins 100¢ $996 2h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Minnesota Twins 99¢ $70 3h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Minnesota Twins 99¢ $21 3h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Minnesota Twins 99¢ $497 3h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Minnesota Twins 99¢ $596 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 99 history records