Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:02:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3f7a…719b sports 162 markets active 0h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,487 (-14%) realized −$4,487 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate46%75W / 87L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$200per market
Trades / day13.7pace
Fees−$527est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$399
14 days−$1,519
30 days−$5,514
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$4,522
other 4% +$112
crypto 0% −$142
politics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -33.2% -39.5% 37% 26% -24.2%
≤30d 127 -12.9% -21.2% 43% 35% -29.8%
≤90d 162 -7.2% -16.0% 46% 39% -21.8%
all 162 -7.2% -16.0% 46% 39% -21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 39% -21.8%
10% -24.0% 32% -29.2%
15% -31.4% 25% -36.1%
20% -38.1% 19% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -2% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$127 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,487
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses75 / 87
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$527
Open positions0
Markets (closed)162 / 162
History coverage42d
Avg bet$200
Trades / day13.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 162 Trades
no open positions (45 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $219 +$278 +127%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $95 +$20 +21%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $158 −$7 -4%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $59 +$42 +70%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $146 −$142 -97%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $135 −$133 -99%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $55 +$22 +40%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $21 −$21 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $23 −$23 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $27 −$27 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $32 −$32 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $44 −$11 -26%
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $61 −$55 -90%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $55 +$5 +10%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $283 −$230 -81%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $274 +$164 +60%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $153 +$3 +2%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $153 −$35 -23%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $217 −$217 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $627 −$391 -62%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Jun 14 $397 +$53 +13%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 14 $204 +$178 +87%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 202.5 Jun 14 $1,575 −$1,364 -87%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic Jun 13 $1,020 +$126 +12%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $41 −$40 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $103 −$31 -30%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $150 +$128 +86%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $124 −$124 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $58 +$42 +72%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $682 +$17 +2%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $25 +$26 +105%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $104 +$99 +96%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $942 +$287 +30%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $773 +$167 +22%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $63 −$62 -98%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $347 −$130 -38%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $26 +$24 +93%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $132 +$39 +30%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $22 +$39 +180%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $75 +$18 +24%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 09 $72 −$72 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 09 $162 −$102 -63%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $62 −$62 -100%
Fukushima United FC vs. FC Ryūkyū: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $49 +$14 +29%
Fukushima United FC vs. FC Ryūkyū: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $48 +$1 +1%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $443 +$182 +41%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Shuai Zhang vs Hannah Klugman Jun 06 $276 −$10 -4%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $21 +$9 +43%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $40 −$8 -21%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $313 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $372 15m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 28¢ $36 19m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 28¢ $16 19m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 28¢ $46 19m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 19m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 41¢ $17 27m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 41¢ $19 27m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 41¢ $1 27m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 41¢ $3 27m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 41¢ $2 27m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 41¢ $8 27m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 41¢ $5 27m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 41¢ $50 27m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 41¢ $10 28m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 41¢ $10 28m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 38¢ $104 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 38¢ $8 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $115 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $91 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $4 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 60¢ $57 4h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 41¢ $57 4h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 71¢ $101 4h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $59 11h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 7¢ $146 16h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $77 26h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 75¢ $77 26h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $58 26h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $28 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 597 history records