Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:06:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3F 0x3f7c…a070 crypto 564 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (55 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$341 (-10%) realized −$342 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%264W / 299L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day55.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$296
7 days−$387
14 days−$416
30 days−$416
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$415
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (55 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 445 -6.2% -15.1% 48% 48% -21.2%
≤30d 563 -8.0% -16.8% 47% 47% -20.5%
≤90d 563 -8.0% -16.8% 47% 47% -20.5%
all 563 -8.0% -16.8% 47% 47% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.8% 47% -20.5%
10% ← realistic here -24.8% 47% -28.1%
15% -32.0% 46% -35.0%
20% -38.7% 45% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$342
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses264 / 299
Open positions1
Markets (closed)563 / 564
History coverage13d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day55.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 563 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Down 50¢ 54¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 283 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$14 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$6 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $23 −$22 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $48 +$43 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $22 +$20 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$8 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$9 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$7 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$7 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $17 +$13 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $43 +$37 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$5 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $13 +$7 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $9 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $16 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $6 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.73 · official $9.91 (match) · 994 history records