Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T17:44:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
3F 0x3f7d…8b3e crypto 133 markets active 2h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,022 (-7%) realized −$993 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate61%80W / 51L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$85est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$257now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$288
7 days+$187
14 days−$784
30 days−$784
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% +$507
crypto 36% −$325
other 18% −$1,320
culture 0% −$14
weather 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -12.6% -20.9% 25% 25% +9.1%
≤30d 36 -11.1% -19.6% 39% 36% -18.0%
≤90d 36 -11.1% -19.6% 39% 36% -18.0%
all 131 -7.2% -16.0% 61% 47% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 47% -17.2%
10% -24.0% 37% -25.1%
15% -31.4% 24% -32.4%
20% -38.1% 20% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$90 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$257
Realized−$993
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses80 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$85
Open positions2
Markets (closed)131 / 133
History coverage104d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Yes 64¢ 57¢ $281 $252 −$29 (-10%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 18¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 1 Australia? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 26 $2 +$12 +596%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $101 +$74 +73%
Exact Score: Japan 0 - 0 Sweden? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 2 Sweden? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -97%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $30 −$30 -99%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $153 −$150 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $504 +$400 +79%
Uruguay to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? Jun 24 $101 −$101 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $510 −$503 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $722 −$712 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $236 +$486 +206%
Colombia to score first vs. Uzbekistan? Jun 18 $177 +$60 +34%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $315 −$313 -99%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $472 −$468 -99%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $31 +$2 +6%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $11 +$6 +51%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $234 +$240 +103%
Austria to score first vs. Jordan? Jun 17 $256 −$22 -8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $163 +$93 +57%
Norway to score first vs. Iraq? Jun 17 $131 +$32 +24%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $639 −$23 -4%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $882 −$746 -85%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $202 −$7 -4%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $101 +$28 +27%
IR Iran to score first vs. New Zealand? Jun 16 $202 −$200 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $990 +$958 +97%
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $286 −$285 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $88 +$52 +59%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $657 +$566 +86%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Mar 23 $89 −$43 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Mar 23 $1 −$1 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Mar 23 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Mar 21 $361 −$361 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Mar 21 $371 −$9 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Mar 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Mar 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Mar 21 $2 +$1 +25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 20? Mar 20 $365 +$38 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Mar 20 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Mar 20 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Mar 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Mar 20 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Mar 20 $11 +$1 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 64¢ $203 1h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 64¢ $81 1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 5h
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 14h
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 15h
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 31h
Exact Score: Japan 0 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 31h
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 31h
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 31h
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 31h
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 31h
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 31h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $101 31h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $30 41h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $153 44h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $504 2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $510 7d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $2 8d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $720 8d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $721 8d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 32¢ $236 8d
Colombia to score first vs. Uzbekistan? SELL Yes 100¢ $236 8d
Colombia to score first vs. Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 74¢ $177 8d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 79¢ $315 8d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 32¢ $204 8d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $472 9d
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 29¢ $32 9d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 9d
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 50¢ $17 9d
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $256.57 · official $256.57 (match) · 259 history records