Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:31:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3f81…707e crypto 405 markets active 10h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$28 (-0%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate39%158W / 247L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$217
7 days−$1,663
14 days−$1,585
30 days−$1,675
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$508
world 29% −$280
other 4% −$281
sports 4% +$184
politics 1% −$3
tech 0% +$12
weather 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -31.3% -37.8% 21% 21% -60.3%
≤30d 134 -12.6% -20.9% 39% 35% -29.8%
≤90d 335 -4.8% -13.9% 38% 36% -14.5%
all 405 -2.8% -12.1% 39% 36% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 36% -14.1%
10% -20.5% 30% -22.3%
15% -28.2% 27% -29.8%
20% -35.2% 21% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$25 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses158 / 247
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)405 / 405
History coverage110d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 405 Trades
no open positions (152 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$4 -68%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $68 −$47 -70%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $159 +$128 +81%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -97%
o1 FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 18 $11 −$1 -12%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $23 −$23 -98%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $17 +$26 +152%
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 17 $11 −$8 -78%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $55 +$204 +372%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $75 −$55 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $43 −$41 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $104 −$88 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $37 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $29 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$6 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$2 -38%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $30 −$3 -11%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $254 +$30 +12%
Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower? Jun 13 $4 −$1 -22%
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? Jun 13 $6 −$1 -23%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $31 −$2 -5%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $37 −$2 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $43 −$17 -41%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $40 −$14 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $130 −$130 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $150 −$150 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $142 −$142 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 12 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $600 −$600 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $20 +$32 +156%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$32 +158%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 11 $42 −$19 -45%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 11 $21 −$20 -97%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $306 +$9 +3%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $64 −$7 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 9h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 9h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 SELL Over 17¢ $21 9h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $68 9h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $287 10h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $159 12h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 12h
o1 FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL No 6¢ $9 12h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 36¢ $51 14h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $23 16h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $44 16h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $17 16h
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL No 2¢ $2 18h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 27¢ $124 18h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 19h
o1 FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 6¢ $11 19h
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY No 7¢ $11 19h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 7¢ $4 19h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 7¢ $14 19h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 8¢ $16 19h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 81¢ $134 20h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 16¢ $20 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 60¢ $75 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $43 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $16 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $53 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $52 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $11 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1034 history records