Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:37:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3f82…2426 crypto 65 markets active 0h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$32 (-1%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate89%58W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days+$56
14 days+$56
30 days+$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +5.5% -4.6% 96% 12% -4.8%
≤30d 25 +5.5% -4.6% 96% 12% -4.8%
≤90d 25 +5.5% -4.6% 96% 12% -4.8%
all 65 -0.9% -10.4% 89% 14% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 14% -9.7%
10% -19.0% 2% -18.4%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$25 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses58 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)65 / 65
History coverage104d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 65 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 18 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $57 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 18 $49 +$8 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 18 $46 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 18 $43 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $40 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 18 $38 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $37 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 18 $32 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 18 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $58 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $57 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $55 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $53 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $48 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $43 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $39 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $37 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $34 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $32 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Mar 18 $144 −$143 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Mar 17 $136 +$8 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Mar 17 $127 +$9 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Mar 16 $114 +$14 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Mar 16 $114 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Mar 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Mar 16 $109 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Mar 16 $108 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Mar 16 $103 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Mar 16 $103 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Mar 15 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Mar 14 $91 +$10 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Mar 13 $90 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Mar 13 $86 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Mar 13 $71 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Mar 13 $85 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Mar 13 $83 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Mar 12 $75 +$8 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Mar 11 $71 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Mar 11 $64 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Mar 10 $64 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Mar 10 $61 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Mar 10 $59 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Mar 10 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Mar 09 $56 +$3 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $30 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $59 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $57 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $57 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $49 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $48 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $46 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $46 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $43 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $58 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $58 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $59 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $57 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $57 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $55 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $55 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $53 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $53 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $52 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 129 history records