trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, D Senate, R House | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | $3,128 | $0 | −$3,128 (-100%) |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | No | 38¢ | 0¢ | $6,292 | $0 | −$6,292 (-100%) |
| JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee? | Yes | 12¢ | 0¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Nov 05 | $6,292 | −$6,292 | -100% |
| Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Aug 06 | $9,208 | +$4,618 | +50% |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Aug 05 | $10,010 | +$1,837 | +18% |
| JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee? | Jul 31 | $2,902 | −$995 | -34% |
| Will Tim Walz be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? | Jul 30 | $694 | +$1,134 | +164% |
| 2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, D Senate, R House | Jul 29 | $3,129 | −$3,128 | -100% |
| [Single Market] Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the U.S. 2024 Republican pres | Jul 17 | $100 | +$3 | +3% |
| Fed rate cut by May 1? | May 02 | $2,181 | +$3,829 | +176% |
| Hamas lose power in Gaza before February? | Mar 05 | $395 | −$395 | -100% |
| Bitcoin all time high by Mar 31? | Mar 05 | $15,049 | +$95,749 | +636% |
| Will Nikki Haley win the New Hampshire Republican Primary? | Feb 02 | $500 | +$11 | +2% |
| Will BTC hit $50,000 by Jan 31? | Feb 02 | $100 | +$2 | +2% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | no closed markets | |||||
| all | 12 | +54.2% | +39.5% | 67% | 42% | +175.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | +39.5% | 42% | +175.3% |
| 10% ← realistic here | +26.2% | 33% | +149.0% |
| 15% | +14.0% | 33% | +124.9% |
| 20% | +2.8% | 33% | +102.9% |