Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:09:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3f82…ca54 crypto 63 markets active 0h ago coverage 216d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,300 (-5%) realized −$1,318 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate40%22W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$411per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$11,104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days−$348
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$117
economics 16% +$280
crypto 15% −$1,162
sports 13% −$424
politics 4% $0
world 1% $0
tech 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-29.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -5.1% -14.1% 33% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 10 -7.6% -16.4% 30% 0% -16.3%
≤90d 13 -5.3% -14.3% 46% 0% -15.9%
all 55 -22.5% -29.9% 40% 20% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.9% 20% -19.0%
10% -36.6% 20% -26.8%
15% -42.7% 18% -33.9%
20% -48.4% 15% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$93 vs −$102 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

216d coverage
Net worth$11,104
Realized−$1,318
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses22 / 33
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions8
Markets (closed)55 / 63
History coverage216d
Avg bet$411
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 86¢ $7,017 $6,868 −$149 (-2%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 76¢ 75¢ $1,588 $1,584 −$5 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 93¢ $932 $932 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 86¢ $861 $862 +$0 (+0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $263 $283 +$20 (+8%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 25¢ 25¢ $246 $246 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? No 16¢ 16¢ $160 $155 −$5 (-3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $96 $97 +$1 (+1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $77 $77 +$0 (+0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $208 −$1 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $53 −$4 -8%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,972 +$28 +1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $28 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $423 $0 +0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $313 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 22 $9 −$3 -34%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $330 −$17 -5%
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $186 −$1 -0%
Pistons vs. Hornets May 28 $1,149 −$351 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Apr 10 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Apr 10 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Apr 10 $97 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Mar 23 $28 −$23 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Mar 23 $121 +$12 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Mar 23 $83 −$83 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Mar 23 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Mar 23 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Mar 23 $50 −$49 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Mar 23 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Mar 23 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Mar 23 $205 +$161 +78%
Timberwolves vs. Celtics Mar 23 $84 −$84 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Mar 23 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Mar 22 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Mar 22 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Mar 22 $100 +$82 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Mar 22 $300 +$8 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Mar 22 $164 −$162 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Mar 22 $102 −$101 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Mar 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Mar 22 $301 −$122 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Mar 22 $56 −$55 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Mar 22 $507 +$221 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Mar 22 $190 −$189 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Mar 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Mar 22 $39 −$13 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Mar 22 $293 +$7 +2%
Hornets vs. Hawks Mar 22 $162 +$138 +85%
76ers vs. Lakers Feb 06 $352 −$352 -100%
Pacers vs. Bucks Feb 06 $204 −$204 -100%
Jazz vs. Pacers Feb 06 $222 +$378 +170%
Nuggets vs. Pistons Feb 03 $304 −$304 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 3? Feb 03 $510 −$510 -100%
Knicks vs. Wizards Feb 03 $112 −$112 -100%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Feb 03 $420 +$279 +66%
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Feb 02 $259 +$91 +35%
Lakers vs. Trail Blazers Jan 29 $116 +$84 +72%
Knicks vs. Pistons Jan 11 $340 +$460 +135%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Jan 02 $136 +$64 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $50 1m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $74 6m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 16¢ $160 1h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 20¢ $15 2h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $49 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 86¢ $861 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $932 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $96 3h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 25¢ $123 5h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 25¢ $123 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 97¢ $89 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 97¢ $62 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 97¢ $88 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 97¢ $367 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 97¢ $94 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 97¢ $69 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 98¢ $980 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 97¢ $205 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 2¢ $2 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 2¢ $15 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 2¢ $2 5h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $26 6h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $125 6h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $28 6h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 22¢ $28 7h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $862 11h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $65 11h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 85¢ $424 12h
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 63¢ $96 13h
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 63¢ $5 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,104.17 · official $11,104.56 (match) · 397 history records