Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:20:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3f88…ac84 weather 345 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 5d only
✗ bot/MM pace (600 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$317 (+0%) realized +$307 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate99%268W / 4L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$191per market
Trades / day600.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$11,649now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$1,610
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (600 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)+14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 272 +26.3% +14.3% 99% 5% -6.9%
≤30d 272 +26.3% +14.3% 99% 5% -6.9%
≤90d 272 +26.3% +14.3% 99% 5% -6.9%
all 272 +26.3% +14.3% 99% 5% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover600.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +14.3% 5% -6.9%
10% ← realistic here +3.4% 5% -15.8%
15% -6.6% 4% -24.0%
20% -15.8% 4% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +38% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$0 · ×12.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×856.8 per $1 lost it wins $856.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$11,649
Realized+$307
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses268 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions73
Markets (closed)272 / 345
History coverage5d ⚠
Avg bet$191
Trades / day600.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 73 History 272 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C or higher on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,628 $1,632 +$4 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on June 17? No 100¢ 99¢ $1,020 $1,012 −$8 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $576 $575 −$1 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C or higher on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $481 $481 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C or higher on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $475 $476 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C or higher on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $453 $454 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C or higher on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $417 $418 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 17? No 100¢ 99¢ $331 $330 −$1 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $309 $309 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $299 $299 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $259 $260 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $253 $253 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $245 $246 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $245 $246 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C or higher on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $239 $240 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $230 $230 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $203 $203 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 38°C or higher on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $202 $202 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C or higher on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $199 $200 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $199 $199 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $199 $197 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $186 $187 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $174 $174 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $168 $169 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $150 $150 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C or higher on June 18 Jun 17 $80 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 18? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 16? Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C or higher on June 16? Jun 17 $51 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 16? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C or higher on June Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 16? Jun 17 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 18? Jun 17 $62 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C or higher on June 17 Jun 16 $137 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $298 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 16? Jun 16 $437 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 16? Jun 16 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 16? Jun 16 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C or higher on June 16 Jun 16 $526 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $759 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $179 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $308 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $93 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $279 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $246 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $219 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $329 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $149 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $98 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $137 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $278 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $130 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $254 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $149 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 36°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $229 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1,261 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $607 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $505 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C or below on June 17? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on June 17? Jun 16 $80 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 17? Jun 16 $249 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on June 16? Jun 16 $279 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $340 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $75 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $299 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C or below on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $4 3m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $5 3m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $5 3m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on June BUY No 100¢ $5 3m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on June BUY No 100¢ $19 4m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $9 4m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $5 4m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $19 4m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $16 5m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C or higher on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $5 7m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C or higher on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $34 7m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C or higher on June 17 BUY No 100¢ $2 10m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $50 14m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $50 14m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $30 14m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $1 15m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $145 16m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $10 17m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C or higher on June 18 SELL No 98¢ $8 17m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C or higher on June 18 SELL No 99¢ $71 18m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $5 18m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $20 18m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $45 18m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $230 19m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $5 19m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $99 20m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $100 20m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $100 20m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $100 20m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $72 20m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,648.84 · official $11,645.64 (match) · 3500 history records