Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:35:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
3F 0x3f88…e655 sports 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 232d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$198 (+7%) realized +$199 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +67% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +51% what you keep after slip
Net edge+51%after slip
Net WR72%break-even
Win rate72%23W / 9L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$137
7 days+$181
14 days+$190
30 days+$445
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$1,053
other 29% −$12
crypto 13% −$355
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +72%
net ROI/market (all)+51.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +170.6% +144.8% 100% 100% +145.1%
≤30d 23 +67.6% +51.6% 61% 61% +10.9%
≤90d 24 +67.4% +51.4% 62% 62% +11.8%
all 32 +67.2% +51.2% 72% 72% +16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +51.2% 72% +16.3%
10% +36.8% 66% +5.2%
15% +23.5% 66% -5.0%
20% +11.4% 62% -14.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +67% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +119% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$84 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.91 per $1 lost it wins $1.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$199
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses23 / 9
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions2
Markets (closed)32 / 52
History coverage232d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 60¢ 58¢ $20 $19 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $10 +$30 +291%
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $20 +$35 +173%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end Jun 27 $10 +$46 +458%
France to score first vs. Norway? Jun 26 $10 +$4 +40%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 26 $10 +$7 +65%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $10 +$5 +52%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $10 +$12 +114%
Spread: France (-2.5) AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $25 +$44 +172%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $50 +$97 +195%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $41 +$92 +224%
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will A Jun 17 $51 +$218 +426%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $141 −$140 -99%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $355 −$355 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$95 +93%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $102 +$98 +97%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $61 −$61 -100%
Warriors vs. Spurs May 31 $25 −$25 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-11-26? May 31 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-17? May 31 $40 −$40 -100%
49ers vs. Seahawks May 31 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $761 +$421 +55%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 28 $51 +$31 +62%
Bills vs. Broncos Jan 18 $40 +$35 +89%
Hawks vs. Spurs Dec 09 $25 +$24 +96%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-11-26? Dec 09 $60 +$48 +79%
Lions vs. Eagles Nov 17 $50 +$36 +72%
Pacers vs. Suns Nov 17 $31 +$19 +61%
Eagles vs. Packers Nov 13 $20 +$19 +96%
Rams vs. 49ers Nov 10 $120 +$21 +18%
Pelicans vs. Spurs Nov 10 $40 +$8 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $26 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? AND Will BUY 10¢ $15 20h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 20h
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY 36¢ $20 20h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end BUY 17¢ $10 40h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Senegal 60¢ $10 43h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 46¢ $10 43h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $10 43h
France to score first vs. Norway? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 43h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Australia win on 2026-0 BUY 12¢ $15 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) AND Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY 15¢ $15 2d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Spread: Morocco (-1.5) AND Will Mexico win o BUY 12¢ $26 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Colombia win o BUY 15¢ $26 4d
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY 28¢ $26 4d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Croatia wi BUY 16¢ $26 5d
Spread: France (-2.5) AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 36¢ $25 6d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY 45¢ $25 6d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 19¢ $26 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 22¢ $41 8d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 8d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a BUY 13¢ $15 8d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY 33¢ $50 8d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end BUY 24¢ $26 9d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end BUY $15 9d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Her BUY 11¢ $26 9d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY 30¢ $41 10d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 10¢ $21 10d
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will A BUY 19¢ $51 11d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $141 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.90 · official $43.90 (match) · 88 history records