Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:31:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3f88…3713 other 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$16 (+4%) realized +$17 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate29%17W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day24.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$36
other 38% +$14
world 3% +$36
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -2.8% -12.0% 29% 28% -6.4%
≤30d 58 -2.8% -12.0% 29% 28% -6.4%
≤90d 58 -2.8% -12.0% 29% 28% -6.4%
all 58 -2.8% -12.0% 29% 28% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.0% 28% -6.4%
10% ← realistic here -20.4% 26% -15.4%
15% -28.1% 22% -23.6%
20% -35.2% 19% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$4 · ×2.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized+$17
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses17 / 41
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions18
Markets (closed)58 / 76
History coverage5d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day24.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Norway 59¢ 60¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $3 +$44 +1428%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 +$3 +34%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 +$7 +650%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $13 +$7 +55%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $2 $0 -14%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $21 −$21 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7 +$32 +442%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 +$3 +55%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $1 +$1 +114%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $47 +$43 +91%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $30 +$7 +23%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $7 +$8 +109%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$13 +250%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 $0 -8%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$5 +225%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $7 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes $1 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 5h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 5h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes $1 5h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 6h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 7h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 7h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $10 7h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 7h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 7h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $6 8h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $11 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $6 8h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes $1 9h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes $1 9h
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes $0 9h
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes $0 9h
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes $1 9h
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 11h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 3 New Zealand? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 11h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 3 New Zealand? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 11h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? SELL Yes 40¢ $26 11h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 74¢ $10 13h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 63¢ $3 19h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.14 · official $57.14 (match) · 139 history records