Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:57:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
3F 0x3f89…01ee crypto 194 markets active 1h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$11 (+2%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate95%185W / 9L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29
7 days+$3
14 days+$4
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 128 +0.7% -8.9% 94% 8% -8.8%
≤30d 150 +0.9% -8.7% 95% 7% -8.6%
≤90d 194 +0.7% -8.9% 95% 5% -8.7%
all 194 +0.7% -8.9% 95% 5% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 5% -8.7%
10% -17.6% 3% -17.4%
15% -25.6% 2% -25.4%
20% -32.9% 2% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses185 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)194 / 194
History coverage50d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 194 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 542 history records