Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:38:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3f8c…80d0 other 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$31 (+1%) realized +$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate52%25W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$9
14 days+$17
30 days−$93
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$37
crypto 39% +$13
politics 0% −$18
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +7.0% -3.2% 100% 0% -3.2%
≤30d 12 +32.3% +19.7% 67% 17% -26.7%
≤90d 46 -4.1% -13.3% 50% 15% -8.8%
all 48 -4.0% -13.1% 52% 15% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 15% -8.9%
10% -21.4% 12% -17.6%
15% -29.0% 10% -25.6%
20% -36.0% 10% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$41 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses25 / 23
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 48
History coverage91d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 26 $128 +$9 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $18 +$112 +637%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $47 −$45 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $60 −$59 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $39 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $10 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $9 +$1 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $54 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30? Jun 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 06 $114 −$114 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 30 $2 +$3 +134%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $99 +$21 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 13? May 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 13? May 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 13 $213 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $201 +$7 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 08 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 08 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 01 $96 +$4 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 01 $54 +$49 +90%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Apr 30 $199 +$1 +0%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 20 $10 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 18? Apr 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 13 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 13 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 13 $32 +$168 +525%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 03 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 03 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 03 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 03 $139 −$104 -75%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 03 $81 +$419 +517%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 24 to Mar Apr 01 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $579 +$171 +30%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 31 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 31 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 28? Mar 29 $198 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 28? Mar 29 $592 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 27? Mar 27 $51 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 27? Mar 27 $748 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $128 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $12 11d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $18 11d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $60 11d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $35 11d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 20d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 20d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 20d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $39 20d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $9 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 27d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $99 35d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $74 35d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 35d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $33 35d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 35d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 35d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 43d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 13? BUY No 0¢ $0 44d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 44d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $113 44d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 13? BUY No 100¢ $100 44d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $212 44d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $213 44d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $201 49d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 56d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $96 57d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $54 57d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $30 57d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 195 history records