Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:35:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
3F 0x3f8c…bb53 other 119 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,845 (-1%) realized −$1,844 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate17%20W / 98L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,271per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$896now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$15
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$1,703
politics 33% −$58
sports 13% −$117
world 2% +$31
economics 2% −$3
crypto 1% +$2
culture 1% −$1
finance 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 65 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
all 118 -1.6% -11.0% 17% 12% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 12% -10.6%
10% -19.5% 12% -19.2%
15% -27.3% 9% -27.0%
20% -34.4% 8% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,845) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$29 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$896
Realized−$1,844
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses20 / 98
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)118 / 119
History coverage132d
Avg bet$1,271
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $897 $896 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 26 $430 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $1,701 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $431 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $432 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $429 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $1,328 −$2 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 14 $1,333 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $2,256 −$4 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $1,337 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,234 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,211 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $1,250 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $4,756 −$5 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $924 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $3,332 −$4 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 04 $350 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 04 $566 +$3 +1%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $2,936 −$3 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $373 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $1,142 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $1,845 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $536 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $3,523 −$4 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $3,423 −$4 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $1,049 −$2 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 07 $2,720 −$3 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 07 $1,320 −$2 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,360 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $1,224 −$2 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $1,363 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 01 $1,264 −$2 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 30 $1,209 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 29 $1,070 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 28 $1,367 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $2,472 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $3,594 −$4 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $2,377 −$2 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $1,246 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $1,043 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $3,559 −$4 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $2,335 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,016 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $1,135 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $6,102 −$6 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $1,246 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $2,502 −$3 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 11 $2,393 −$2 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 10 $3,609 −$4 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 09 $1,246 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $1,889 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $429 1h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $430 6h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $431 5d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $432 5d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $430 5d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $431 5d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $431 7d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $432 7d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $428 7d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $429 7d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $818 10d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $80 10d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,326 11d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,328 12d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $1,331 12d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $1,333 12d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,327 13d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,329 13d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,335 13d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,337 13d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,233 13d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,234 14d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,209 14d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,211 14d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,248 19d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,250 19d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $925 20d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $927 21d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,231 21d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,233 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $895.95 · official $895.95 (match) · 404 history records