Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T06:19:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3f8e…1c58 crypto 63 markets active 23h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (272 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$502 (+18%) realized +$502 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%30W / 33L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day272.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$360
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (272 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 +29.5% +17.2% 48% 48% +2.4%
≤30d 63 +29.5% +17.2% 48% 48% +2.4%
≤90d 63 +29.5% +17.2% 48% 48% +2.4%
all 63 +29.5% +17.2% 48% 48% +2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover272.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +17.2% 48% +2.4%
10% ← realistic here +6.0% 41% -7.4%
15% -4.3% 41% -16.4%
20% -13.7% 38% -24.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +64% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$36 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$502
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses30 / 33
Open positions0
Markets (closed)63 / 63
History coverage1d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day272.4
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 63 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$10 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 25 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$4 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 25 $4 +$7 +173%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 25 $6 +$65 +1069%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 25 $52 +$77 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 25 $145 +$118 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 25 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 25 $36 +$4 +12%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$15 +76%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$6 +125%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$9 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 25 $109 −$19 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 25 $41 +$17 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$40 +193%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 25 $16 +$68 +423%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 25 $82 +$56 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 25 $36 −$36 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 25 $64 +$50 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 25 $74 −$74 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 25 $124 +$156 +126%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 25 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 25 $85 −$85 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 25 $103 +$112 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 25 $41 +$7 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 25 $121 −$20 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 25 $52 +$10 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$19 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 25 $62 +$77 +124%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 25 $92 +$73 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 25 $72 −$72 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 25 $73 −$73 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$5 +52%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 25 $72 +$65 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 25 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 25 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 25 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 25 $141 +$174 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 25 $36 +$139 +390%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 25 $68 −$68 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $31 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $21 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $20 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $10 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $25 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $20 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $129 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $21 23h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $6 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $4 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $21 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $68 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $89 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $6 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $26 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $21 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $31 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $21 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $4 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $21 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 347 history records