Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:21:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3f8e…0404 crypto 1532 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 2d only
✗ bot/MM pace (1509 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$908 (+98%) realized +$909 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate28%190W / 495L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day1509.0pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% +$358
other 15% +$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1509 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 685 -3.1% -12.4% 28% 27% +11.4%
≤30d 685 -3.1% -12.4% 28% 27% +11.4%
≤90d 685 -3.1% -12.4% 28% 27% +11.4%
all 685 -3.1% -12.4% 28% 27% +11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1509.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.4% 27% +11.4%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 27% +0.7%
15% -28.4% 27% -9.0%
20% -35.4% 25% -17.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +31% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +94% → late -100% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×4.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.7 per $1 lost it wins $1.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$909
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses190 / 495
Open positions7
Markets (closed)685 / 1532
History coverage2d ⚠
Avg bet$1
Trades / day1509.0
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 685 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Up 88¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-80%)
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 6AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
HYPE Up or Down - May 20, 6AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
XRP Up or Down - June 2, 10PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 20, 6AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
XRP Up or Down - May 20, 6AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 493 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 6AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 4, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 8, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 8, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 28, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 3, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 21, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 20, 9AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 6, 3PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 7PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 5, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 5, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 3, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 11AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 2AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 3, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
HYPE Up or Down - May 20, 12AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 2m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 7m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 12m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 31m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 34m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 34m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 41m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 42m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 43m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 47m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 50m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 52m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 56m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 58m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.22 · official $0.69 (match) · 3500 history records