Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:27:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3F
0x3f8f…f31c
world · 4 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$11 +10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$15 · open −$15
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$13
Realized−$15
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 3 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$15
14 days−$15
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Yes 20¢ 9¢ $28 $13 −$15 (-54%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $35 −$7 -19%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 14 $29 −$3 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 95% −$25
crypto 5% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 17m
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 5¢ $7 20m
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 21¢ $26 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 26¢ $26 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 29¢ $29 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 13¢ $20 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 10¢ $21 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 16¢ $29 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $18 4h
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 7¢ $15 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-48.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -43.0% -48.4% 0% 0% -28.6%
≤30d 3 -43.0% -48.4% 0% 0% -28.6%
≤90d 3 -43.0% -48.4% 0% 0% -28.6%
all 3 -43.0% -48.4% 0% 0% -28.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.4% 0% -28.6%
10% -53.4% 0% -35.4%
15% -57.9% 0% -41.7%
20% -62.0% 0% -47.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.97 · official $12.97 (match) · 11 history records