Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:28:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3f94…df64 crypto 660 markets active 0h ago coverage 53d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 53d only
✗ bot/MM pace (63 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$144 (-2%) realized −$144 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate61%411W / 262L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day63.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days−$25
14 days−$25
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$215
weather 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (63 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -15.0% -23.1% 40% 16% -23.2%
≤30d 43 -15.0% -23.1% 40% 16% -23.2%
≤90d 673 -1.9% -11.2% 61% 37% -13.3%
all 673 -1.9% -11.2% 61% 37% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover63.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.2% 37% -13.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.7% 24% -21.6%
15% -27.5% 4% -29.2%
20% -34.6% 3% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$144
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses411 / 262
Open positions0
Markets (closed)673 / 660
History coverage53d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day63.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 673 Trades
no open positions (127 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +651%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $13 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $14 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $24 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on May 16? May 15 $5 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 13 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 13 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 12 $2 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 12 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 12 $8 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 12 $3 −$2 -76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $0 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $0 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $0 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records