Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T12:08:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3F
0x3f94…da32
crypto · 1336 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$30 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$350 · open −$26
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$40
Realized−$350
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses823 / 507
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1330 / 1336
History coverage78d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day43.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 6 History 1330 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$306
7 days−$19
14 days−$19
30 days+$183
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+13%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Yes 19¢ 6¢ $20 $6 −$14 (-70%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-38%)
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-84%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-80%)
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Desire Doue: Anytime Goalscorer Yes 22¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? No 12¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 13 $2 +$13 +632%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$19 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $302 −$300 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$42 +42%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 08 $8 −$8 -97%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $146 +$156 +107%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 07 $300 +$106 +35%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $22 +$13 +57%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $51 +$27 +52%
Desire Doue: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $102 −$100 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? May 29 $40 −$40 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $20 −$13 -62%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 28 $60 −$2 -3%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 26 $128 +$399 +312%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 25 $10 +$2 +25%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $24 −$2 -8%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 21 $7 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 20 $8 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 20 $7 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 20 $7 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 20 $8 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 20 $8 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 20 $8 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 20 $8 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 20 $6 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 20 $7 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 20 $8 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET May 20 $8 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 19 $8 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 19 $8 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 19 $8 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 19 $8 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 19 $8 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 19 $8 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 19 $6 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 19 $8 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 19 $8 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 19 $7 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 19 $8 +$4 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 19 $8 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 18 $8 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 18 $8 −$1 -14%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 18 $6 +$1 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 80% −$338
world 12% +$485
other 7% −$438
sports 1% −$78
politics 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL Yes 34¢ $15 21h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $20 24h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $302 24h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 44h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 4d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 4d
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? BUY No 12¢ $8 6d
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 6d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $302 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? BUY Yes 74¢ $300 6d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 68¢ $183 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 74¢ $200 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 30¢ $45 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 23¢ $35 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 14¢ $22 10d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 52¢ $78 14d
Desire Doue: Anytime Goalscorer BUY Yes 22¢ $31 14d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 14d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 33¢ $51 14d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? BUY Yes 41¢ $40 15d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 15d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? SELL Yes 35¢ $58 16d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? BUY Yes 36¢ $60 16d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? BUY No 0¢ $1 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +52.5% +38.0% 56% 56% -11.4%
≤30d 51 +29.9% +17.6% 33% 25% -21.3%
≤90d 1330 -1.5% -10.9% 62% 39% -14.7%
all 1330 -1.5% -10.9% 62% 39% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover43.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 39% -14.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.4% 17% -22.8%
15% -27.2% 5% -30.3%
20% -34.3% 3% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.61 · official $39.61 (match) · 3500 history records