Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:52:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3f98…9f9b world 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 248d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate37%15W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% −$2
politics 17% $0
other 7% $0
crypto 5% $0
economics 2% +$1
finance 2% $0
tech 1% −$1
sports 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 11 -0.0% -9.5% 36% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 12 -0.3% -9.8% 33% 0% -9.9%
all 41 -1.2% -10.6% 37% 5% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 5% -9.8%
10% -19.2% 2% -18.4%
15% -27.0% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

248d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses15 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage248d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 94¢ 95¢ $48 $49 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 27 $51 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $54 +$2 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $50 −$1 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $31 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $91 −$3 -3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $111 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $69 −$1 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 20 $2 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $17 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 19 $58 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 18 $37 −$1 -3%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Dec 24 $2 −$1 -43%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 05 $22 $0 -1%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Oct 23 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October? Oct 23 $1 $0 -6%
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025? Oct 23 $1 $0 -19%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October? Oct 23 $21 +$1 +4%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 22 $21 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 Oct 22 $17 $0 -1%
Will The Life of a Showgirl by Taylor Swift be the top Spotify album f Oct 22 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Oct 22 $2 $0 +0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 22 $2 $0 +14%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Oct 21 $16 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 Oct 21 $2 $0 -6%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 21 $4 +$1 +23%
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + D66? Oct 21 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Putin by October 31? Oct 20 $18 +$1 +5%
Will Elon Musk be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Oct 20 $9 −$1 -14%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 20 $12 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Oct 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate David Zervos as the next Fed chair? Oct 19 $20 $0 +1%
Will Curtis Sliwa win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 19 $17 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 18 $20 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 18 $6 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $116,000 October 13-19? Oct 18 $23 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 17 $23 $0 +0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 17 $23 $0 -1%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 14 $23 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by October 31? Oct 13 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $48 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $7 3h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 7h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $51 22d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $49 22d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $2 22d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 71¢ $57 22d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 68¢ $45 22d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 68¢ $10 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 71¢ $49 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $50 23d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $31 23d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $31 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 30¢ $16 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 30¢ $15 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 30¢ $15 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 29¢ $47 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 36¢ $24 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 36¢ $14 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 40¢ $44 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 95¢ $63 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 95¢ $63 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 98¢ $48 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 98¢ $48 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 95¢ $63 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 95¢ $63 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.53 · official $48.53 (match) · 216 history records