trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 1 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 0% | 0% | -9.7% |
| ≤90d | 6 | -15.5% | -23.6% | 67% | 0% | -14.9% |
| all | 7 | -13.3% | -21.6% | 71% | 0% | -14.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -21.6% | 0% | -14.4% |
| 10% | -29.1% | 0% | -22.6% |
| 15% | -35.9% | 0% | -30.0% |
| 20% | -42.2% | 0% | -36.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | $2 | $2 | +$0 (+2%) |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? | Yes | 42¢ | 41¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 42¢ | 23¢ | $2 | $1 | −$1 (-46%) |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 62¢ | 57¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-7%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 15 | $5 | $0 | -0% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | May 22 | $2 | $0 | +4% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | May 12 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee | Apr 25 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April | Apr 17 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Apr 02 | $5 | $0 | +2% |
| Trump out as President by March 31? | Mar 27 | $2 | $0 | +0% |