Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:33:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3fa2…cf15 sports 411 markets active 1h ago coverage 242d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$114 (-0%) realized −$122 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate25%101W / 309L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$181per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$211est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$232now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$697
7 days+$2
14 days+$473
30 days+$1,019
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$55
other 33% +$797
crypto 6% −$772
culture 0% +$348
world 0% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +32.2% +19.6% 28% 28% -9.2%
≤30d 73 +19.0% +7.7% 25% 25% -2.8%
≤90d 120 +5.5% -4.5% 28% 27% -6.9%
all 410 -10.7% -19.2% 25% 24% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 24% -9.2%
10% -26.9% 24% -17.9%
15% -34.0% 24% -25.8%
20% -40.5% 23% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -25% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$426 vs −$139 · ×3.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

242d coverage
Net worth$232
Realized−$122
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses101 / 309
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$211
Open positions1
Markets (closed)410 / 411
History coverage242d
Avg bet$181
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 410 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $225 $232 +$8 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 279 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $107 +$393 +365%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $194 +$212 +109%
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) Jun 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $330 +$125 +38%
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 18 $117 −$117 -100%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz Jun 18 $106 −$103 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $563 +$257 +46%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $47 −$32 -66%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$199 +388%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $117 +$139 +118%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $17 −$2 -10%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $98 −$98 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $66 −$64 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $44 +$21 +48%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $43 −$42 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $49 −$6 -13%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$132 +1288%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $762 −$358 -47%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $265 −$261 -98%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -97%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $14 −$13 -96%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $77 +$378 +492%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $85 −$83 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $58 +$375 +649%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $153 −$131 -85%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $167 −$167 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $220 −$216 -98%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $223 −$223 -100%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $59 −$58 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $236 −$232 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $386 −$142 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 11 $220 −$20 -9%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 $0 -14%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $221 +$848 +383%
Libema Open: Martin Damm vs Alex de Minaur Jun 10 $418 −$330 -79%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 10 $177 −$176 -99%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 10 $39 −$38 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $945 −$937 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 09 $335 +$631 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bangladesh win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $372 +$989 +266%
Spread: Bangladesh (-2.5) Jun 05 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $77 46m
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $406 47m
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) SELL Czechia 0¢ $0 48m
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Over 47¢ $194 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $154 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $107 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 72¢ $456 1h
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) BUY Czechia 10¢ $1 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $330 2h
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Corentin Moutet 35¢ $2 7h
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Corentin Moutet 39¢ $114 8h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz BUY Fabian Marozsan 18¢ $28 8h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz BUY Fabian Marozsan 19¢ $78 8h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 23¢ $102 21h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 21h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 82¢ $665 21h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $16 22h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 6¢ $16 22h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $47 23h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 47¢ $46 23h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $433 23h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $250 23h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 20¢ $51 24h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 24h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $256 24h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Over 45¢ $26 26h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $16 26h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 49¢ $17 26h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 49¢ $11 26h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 49¢ $16 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $232.50 · official $232.50 (match) · 1912 history records