Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:40:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

3F 0x3fa6…edda sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$123 (+38%) realized +$123 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +52% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +38% what you keep after slip

Net edge+38%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%5W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$65per market

Trades / day2.5pace

Fees−$5est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+38.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+52.5%	+38.0%	100%	100%	+32.0%
≤30d	5	+52.5%	+38.0%	100%	100%	+32.0%
≤90d	5	+52.5%	+38.0%	100%	100%	+32.0%
all	5	+52.5%	+38.0%	100%	100%	+32.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.5 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+38.0%	100%	+32.0%
10%	+24.8%	100%	+19.3%
15%	+12.7%	60%	+7.8%
20%	+1.7%	60%	-2.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 31% · top 2 56% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +46% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +52% · $-wt +46% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$30 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$123

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses5 / 0

Est. fees paid−$5

Open positions0

Markets (closed)5 / 5

History coverage4d

Avg bet$65

Trades / day2.5

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 5 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5	Jun 20	$81	+$22	+28%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner	Jun 19	$30	+$16	+52%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner	Jun 18	$41	+$37	+90%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	Jun 17	$71	+$46	+65%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$101	+$28	+27%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5	SELL Under	77¢	$68	45m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	45¢	$41	1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	55¢	$36	1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	61¢	$40	2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner	BUY G2	65¢	$30	32h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner	SELL Aurora Gaming	90¢	$77	2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner	BUY Aurora Gaming	35¢	$10	2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner	BUY Aurora Gaming	52¢	$30	2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	60¢	$71	3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	78¢	$101	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 13 history records