Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:36:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3fa8…fb3a crypto 36 markets active 2d ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$57 (-17%) realized −$51 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate32%11W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day17.4pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 44% −$24
world 25% −$11
other 21% −$12
politics 6% −$16
culture 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-27.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -19.9% -27.5% 32% 24% -25.8%
≤30d 34 -19.9% -27.5% 32% 24% -25.8%
≤90d 34 -19.9% -27.5% 32% 24% -25.8%
all 34 -19.9% -27.5% 32% 24% -25.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.5% 24% -25.8%
10% -34.5% 21% -32.9%
15% -40.8% 18% -39.3%
20% -46.6% 9% -45.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$51
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses11 / 23
Open positions2
Markets (closed)34 / 36
History coverage4d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day17.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 66¢ 54¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 30¢ 18¢ $12 $7 −$5 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $12 −$8 -70%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $8 $0 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $25 −$2 -9%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $6 $0 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$3 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$4 -71%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $21 −$16 -76%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 12 $20 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 Jun 12 $5 $0 -9%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 Jun 12 $5 $0 -9%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 39 Jun 12 $2 $0 -28%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $21 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$6 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$3 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$21 +200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$7 +65%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$8 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 +$7 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $7 +$3 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 36h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 36h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $9 37h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $12 46h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $8 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $10 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 70¢ $23 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 77¢ $25 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $8 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $6 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $1 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $1 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 4d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $1 4d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $1 4d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 4d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? SELL No 0¢ $3 4d
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June SELL No 76¢ $17 4d
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June BUY No 89¢ $20 4d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY No 2¢ $10 4d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 SELL Yes 41¢ $1 4d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 SELL Yes 29¢ $1 4d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 39 SELL Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? SELL No 0¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.50 · official $15.20 (match) · 79 history records