Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:10:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3F 0x3fad…1a08 crypto 1116 markets active 5h ago coverage 36d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 36d only
✗ bot/MM pace (84 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$90 (+1%) realized +$90 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate61%684W / 432L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day84.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days−$149
14 days−$178
30 days−$573
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$344
other 1% −$20
sports 1% −$27
world 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (84 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 234 -11.8% -20.2% 60% 56% -16.3%
≤30d 655 -11.4% -19.9% 60% 55% -14.8%
≤90d 1116 -7.7% -16.5% 61% 57% -11.6%
all 1116 -7.7% -16.5% 61% 57% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover84.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.5% 57% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -24.5% 47% -20.0%
15% -31.8% 33% -27.8%
20% -38.5% 19% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$11 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$90
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses684 / 432
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1116 / 1116
History coverage36d ⚠
Avg bet$16
Trades / day84.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1116 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$15 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $7 +$2 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 18 $6 +$5 +75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$2 -27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $23 +$8 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$2 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $11 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 18 $7 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$6 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 18 $11 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $16 −$5 -29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 18 $14 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 18 $22 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 18 $6 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 18 $11 +$2 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$2 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $11 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$16 +307%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 +$15 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$7 +72%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$16 -76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$5 +50%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $40 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $11 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records