Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:06:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
3F 0x3fae…ef5f other 160 markets active 9h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$86 (+6%) realized +$70 · open +$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate33%57W / 114L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$56
14 days+$53
30 days+$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$36
crypto 15% +$74
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -31.1% -37.7% 22% 17% +16.2%
≤30d 80 -26.6% -33.6% 29% 21% +5.3%
≤90d 169 -13.9% -22.1% 33% 26% -6.1%
all 171 -14.3% -22.5% 33% 26% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.5% 26% -6.8%
10% -29.9% 21% -15.7%
15% -36.7% 18% -23.9%
20% -42.9% 15% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$4 · ×2.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized+$70
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses57 / 114
Open positions8
Markets (closed)171 / 160
History coverage234d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 171 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 18¢ 42¢ $10 $24 +$14 (+136%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 6¢ 14¢ $5 $11 +$6 (+116%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 31¢ 34¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-43%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-62%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 63 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $22 −$10 -44%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $27 −$4 -16%
Will Solana reach $80 on June 15? Jun 15 $11 +$7 +66%
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$37 +702%
Will Solana reach $75 on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $13 −$12 -95%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$13 +122%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$17 +322%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $5 +$26 +486%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $22 −$20 -93%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $11 +$14 +122%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $21 +$2 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $21 +$7 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $26 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $13 −$7 -56%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -92%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $10 +$10 +93%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 9h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 21h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 22h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 24h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 24h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 28h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 28h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 29h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 29h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 29h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 29h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 44h
Will Solana reach $80 on June 15? SELL Yes 5¢ $8 46h
Will Solana reach $80 on June 15? SELL Yes 5¢ $10 46h
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 15? SELL Yes 86¢ $16 46h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Solana reach $75 on June 15? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 2d
Will Solana reach $80 on June 15? BUY Yes 3¢ $11 2d
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 15? SELL Yes 52¢ $27 2d
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 15? SELL Yes 89¢ $14 2d
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 15? SELL Yes 89¢ $9 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 2d
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 15? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 2d
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $10 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $20 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 2d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.67 · official $50.67 (match) · 488 history records